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RFF-未来资源研究所:2020年气候洞察:政策与政,治(全文完整)

 

 This

 thir d

 inst allment

 of

 the

 Clima t e

 Insight s

 2020

 r ep ort

 f o cuse s

 on

 Americans" opinions

 r egar ding

 go v ernment

 p olicie s

 t o

 r e duc e

 gr e enhouse

 gas emissions.

 This

 serie s

 is ac c ompanie d

 b y an

 inter ac tiv e

 da t a

 t o ol ,

 which

 can

 b e

 use d

 t o

 view sp e cific

 dat a

 fr om

 the

 surv e y .

 Please

 visit

 www .rff . or g/ clima t einsight s

 or

 http s: // clima t epublic opinion. st anf or d. e du/

 f or

 mor e

 inf orma tion

 and

 t o

 ac c e ss

 the

 dat a

 t o ol, r ep ort

 serie s,

 blo g

 p ost s,

 and

 mor e.

 Not e:

 S inc e

 199 7 ,

 S t anf or d

 Univ er sit y P rof e s sor

 Jon

 Kr osnick

 has

 le d

 surv e y s

 e xploring

 American

 public

 opinion

 on

 is sue s

 rela t e d

 t o

 global

 w arming,

 human

 ac tivit y , go v ernment

 p olicie s

 t o

 addr e ss

 climat e

 change,

 and

 mor e,

 thr ough

 a

 serie s

 of

 rigorous na tional

 surv e y s

 of

 random

 s ample s

 of

 American

 adult s.

 When

 this

 r e sear ch

 pr o gr am b egan,

 "global

 w arming"

 w as

 the

 t erm

 in

 c ommon

 parlanc e.

 Tha t

 t erm

 w as

 use d thr oughout

 the

 surv e y s

 o v er

 the

 de cade s

 and

 w as

 alw a y s

 define d

 f or

 r e sp ondent s,

 so

 it

 w as

 pr op erly

 under st oo d.

 In

 r e c ent

 y ear s,

 the

 t erm

 "clima t e

 change"

 has

 risen

 in p opularit y ,

 so

 b oth

 t erms

 ar e

 use d

 in

 this

 r ep ort

 int er changeably .

 When

 de scribing surv e y que stion

 wor dings

 and

 r e sult s,

 the

 t erm

 "global

 w arming"

 is use d,

 t o

 ma t ch the

 t erm

 ref er enc e d

 during

 int erview s.

 Empirical

 st udie s

 ha v e

 shown

 tha t

 surv e y r e sp ondent s

 interpr et

 the

 t erms

 "global

 w arming"

 and

 "clima t e

 change"

 t o

 ha v e e quiv alent

 meanings

 (Villar

 and

 Kr osnick

 20 11).

 A ckno wle dgment s

 The author s

 and

 c ontribut or s

 would

 lik e

 t o

 thank

 Angelique

 Uglow

 (R e c onMR),

 Jar e d McD onald

 (S t anf or d

 Univ er sit y ),

 Ma tt

 B er ent

 (B er ent

 C onsulting),

 A dina

 Ab ele s (S t anf or d

 Univ er sit y ),

 and

 S am y S ek ar

 (S t anf or d

 Univ er sit y ).

 In

 addition,

 the

 author s thank

 RFF

 r e searcher s

 and

 st aff

 Richar d

 Newell,

 Ra y K opp ,

 D allas

 Burtr aw ,

 K a thryne Cleary ,

 Mar c

 Hafst ead,

 Alan

 Krupnick ,

 Richar d

 Mor genst ern,

 K ar en

 P almer ,

 D aniel Raimi,

 D aniel

 Shawhan,

 Justine Sulliv an,

 R os s

 v an

 der

 Linde,

 Laur en

 Dunlap ,

 and

 Anne

 McD arris.

  Thank s

 also

 go

 t o

 the

 under gr aduat e

 st udent s

 a t

 S t anf or d

 who

 ha v e

 supp ort e d

 this eff ort ,

 include

 the

 r e sear ch

 as sist ant s

 in

 the

 P olitical

 P s y cholo gy

 R e sear ch

 Gr oup

 a t S t anf or d

 Univ er sit y:

 C onnor

 R ok os,

 Ma y a

 S alameh,

 P aul

 Mit alip o v ,

 R ob ert a

 Mar que z , B ella

 Me yn,

 S ierr a

 Bur gon,

  Mac

 S impson,

 Linds a y Chong,

 Diana

 Maria

 Elsie

 Jor dan, and

 Laris s a

 B ersh.

  A dditional

 funding

 f or

 this

 surv e y w as

 pr o vided

 b y the

 f ollowing

 sour c e s

 a t

 S t anf or d Univ er sit y:

 the

 W oo ds

 Instit ut e

 f or

 the

 En vir onment ,

 the

 P r e c ourt

 Instit ut e

 f or

 Ener gy , and

 the

 S cho ol

 of

 E arth,

 Ener gy

 &

 En vir onment al

 S cienc e s.

  Phot o s:

 cart er dayne

 /

 G ett y Image s

 (c o v er );

 gyn90 3 7

 /

 Shutt er st o ck

 (page

 4 ); k amilpetr an

 /

 Shutt er st o ck

 (page

 1 2 );

 John

 K eith

 /

 Shutt er st o ck

 (page

 17 ); Burlingham

 /

 Shutt er st o ck

 (page

 2 5);

 S ongquan

 D eng

 /

 Shutt er st o ck

 (page

 2 9).

  Sharing

 Our

 W ork

 Our

 work

 is a v ailable

 f or

 sharing

 and

 adapt a tion

 under

 an

 A ttribution- NonC ommer cial-NoD eriv a tiv e s

 4. 0

 International

 ( CC

 B Y -NC-ND 4. 0)

 lic ense.

 Y ou can

 c op y and

 r e distribut e

 our

 ma t erial

 in

 an y me dium

 or

 f orma t ;

 y ou

 must

 giv e appr opria t e

 cr e dit ,

 pr o vide

 a

 link

 t o

 the

 lic ense,

 and

 indica t e

 if

 change s

 wer e

 made, and

 y ou

 ma y not

 apply

 additional

 r e stric tions.

 Y ou

 ma y do

 so

 in

 an y r easonable manner ,

 but

 not

 in

 an y w a y tha t

 suggest s

 the

 lic ensor

 endor se s

 y ou

 or

 y our

 use.

 Y ou

 ma y not

 use

 the

 ma t erial

 f or

 c ommer cial

 purp ose s.

 If

 y ou

 r emix ,

 tr ansf orm,

 or build

 up on

 the

 ma t erial,

 y ou

 ma y not

 distribut e

 the

 mo difie d

 ma t erial.

 F or

 mor e inf orma tion,

 visit

 http s: // cr e a tiv e c ommons . or g/lic ense s /b y -nc -nd/ 4 . 0 / .

  Use

 of

 an y ma t erial

 in

 this

 publica tion

 should

 b e

 cr e dit e d

 t o

 the

 f ollowing:

 Kr osnick ,

 Jon

 A .,

 and

 B o

 MacInnis.

 2020 .

 Clima t e

 Insight s

 20 20:

 P olicie s

 and

 P olitic s.

 W ashingt on, D C:

 R e sour c e s

 f or

 the

 F ut ur e.

  The dat a

 include d

 in

 this

 r ep ort

 c ome s

 fr om

 sour c e s

 with

 v arying

 sharing

 p olicie s. Please

 che ck

 the

 ref er enc e s

 f or

 mor e

 inf orma tion,

 and

 email

 kr o snick @st anf or d. e du with

 an y questions.

 C ont ent s

 Intr o duc tion

  1

 Gr e enhouse

 G as

 Emissions

 R e duc tion

 P olicie s

  3

 Ec onomic

 Eff e c t s

 of

 Mitiga tion

 P olicie s

  1 3

 2020

 F e deral

 Ec onomic

 S timulus

 P ack age s

  16

 S o ciotropic

 v s.

 P o ck etb o ok

 Motiv a tions

  20

 Dismantling

 Obama-Er a

 P olicie s:

 Exploring

 the

 Impact

 of

 Elit e

 C ue s

  22

 V oting

 in

 the

 2020

 Ele c tion

  26

 C onclusion

  28

 R ef er enc e s

  3 1

  In

 Clima t e I nsights

 20 20: Ov er all

 T r ends ,

 we

 showe d

 tha t

 huge

 majoritie s

 of

 Americans b elie v e

 tha t

 E arth

 has

 b e en

 w arming,

 tha t

 the

 w arming

 has

 b e en

 cause d

 b y human ac tivit y ,

 tha t

 w arming

 pose s

 a

 significant

 thr ea t

 t o

 the

 na tion

 and

 the

 world—e sp e cially t o

 fut ur e

 gener a tions—and

 tha t

 go v ernment s,

 busine s se s,

 and

 individuals

 should

 b e t aking

 st eps

 t o

 addr e ss

 it .

  In

 this

 r ep ort ,

 we

 t urn

 t o

 sp e cific

 go v ernment

 opp ortunitie s

 t o

 r e duc e

 fut ur e gr e enhouse

 gas emissions,

 of t en

 ref erre d

 t o

 as

 climat e

 change

 mitiga tion.

 P olicie s

 t o ac c omplish

 this

 goal

 f all

 int o

 multiple

 ca tegorie s,

 including:

  1.

 C onsumer

 inc entiv e s

 tha t

 r ew ar d

 p e ople

 f or

 t aking

 st eps

 tha t

 r e duc e

 their

 use

 of f ossil

 fuels

 and,

 b y e xt ension,

 r e duc e

 their

 carb on

 f o otprint

 2.

 Carb on

 pricing policie s

 tha t

 r e quir e

 emitter s

 t o

 pa y f or

 their

 carb on

 emissions, such

 as

 a

 carb on

 tax

 ( which

 would

 r e quir e

 carb on

 emitter s

 t o

 pa y a

 t ax

 f or

 each t on

 of

 carb on

 the y emit ),

 or

 a

 cap -and-tr ade

 pr o gr am

 ( which

 would

 r e quir e busine s se s

 t o

 ha v e

 a

 p ermit

 f or

 each

 t on

 of

 carb on

 the y emit )

 3.

 R e gula tions

 tha t

 r e quir e

 manuf ac t ur er s

 t o

 increase

 ener gy

 efficiency

 of

 their pr o duc t s,

 including

 aut omobiles,

 applianc es,

 and

 buildings

 4.

 T ax

 inc entiv e s

 tha t

 enc our age

 manuf ac t ur er s

 t o

 increase

 the

 ener gy

 efficiency of

 their

 pr o duc t s

  The 2020

 surv e y ask e d

 Americans

 ab out

 their

 opinions

 on

 a

 wide

 arr a y of

 such p olicie s,

 which

 allow s

 us

 t o

 not

 only

 as se ss

 curr ent

 attitude s,

 but

 also

 t o

 tr ack change s in

 those

 attitude s

 o v er

 the

 past

 t wo

 de cade s

 thr ough

 c omparisons

 with

 r e sp onse s

 t o

 c ompar able

 que stions

 ask e d

 in

 earlier

 na tional

 surv e y s.

 A s

 we

 outline d

 in

 our

 fir st r ep ort ,

 one

 might

 imagine

 tha t

 the

 curr ent

 public

 health,

 e c onomic ,

 and

 so cial

 crise s f acing

 the

 na tion

 ma y ha v e

 cause d

 Americans

 t o

 b e

 le ss

 willing

 t o

 supp ort

 go v ernment climat e

 mitiga tion

 eff ort s

 in

 f a v or

 of

 addr e s sing

 mor e

 imme diat e

 pr oblems.

 A s

 we

 shall se e,

 tha t

 did

 not

 happ en.

  W e

 also

 t o ok

 this

 opp ortunit y t o

 e xplor e

 whether

 p e ople

 e v alua t e

 go v ernment

 p olicie s base d

 on

 wha t

 the y b elie v e

 is b e st f or

 the

 na tion

 as

 a

 whole

 ( called

 "so ciotr opic" r easoning)

 or

 whether

 each

 individual

 e v alua t e s

 p olicie s

 base d

 on

 their

 own

 p er sonal financial

 int ere st s

 ( called

 "p o ck etb o ok"

 r easoning).

 A s

 we

 e xplor e d

 in

 pr e vious inst allment s

 in

 this

 r ep ort

 serie s,

 a

 gr ea t

 deal

 of

 e c onomic

 the ory

 has

 p ortr a y e d

  p e ople

 as

 r a tional

 ac t or s

 pur suing

 their

 own

 p er sonal

 ma t erial

 self-int ere st s

 (Kiewiet 198 3;

 Kinder

 and

 Kiewiet

 198 1;

 L ewis-B e ck

 and

 P aldam

 2000).

 Ra tional

 choic e

 the ory suggest s

 tha t

 p e ople

 will

 supp ort

 a

 public

 p olicy

 if

 the y p er c eiv e

 tha t

 it

 will

 yield gr ea t er

 e c onomic

 b enefit s

 t o

 them

 than

 the

 c ost s

 incurr e d

 (D owns

 1957 ).

 Howe v er , r e sear ch

 has

 shown

 tha t

 a

 p er son"s

 ma t erial

 self-int ere st s

 ha v e

 little

 impact

 when f orming

 opinions

 ab out

 go v ernment

 p olicie s.

 Inst ead,

 p e ople

 f orm

 their

 opinions

 base d much

 mor e

 on

 "so ciotr opic"

 r easoning

 (Lau and

 Heldman

 2009;

 S ear s

 and

 F unk

 1990; S ear s

 et

 al.

 1980).

 Intr o duc tion

 T o

 t e st the se

 c omp eting

 h yp othe se s,

 we

 e xplor e

 the

 e xt ent

 t o

 which

 supp ort

 f or mitiga tion

 p olicie s

 is driv en

 b y b eliefs

 tha t

 unche ck e d

 global

 w arming

 will

 either

 hurt ( or

 help )

 the

 r e sp ondent

 p er sonally

 or

 hurt

 ( or

 help )

 so ciet y as

 a

 whole,

 and

 whether eff ort s

 t o

 mitigat e

 global

 w arming

 will

 ha v e

 unint entional

 side - eff e c t s

 tha t

 will

 either hurt

 ( or

 help )

 the

 r e sp ondent

 e c onomically

 or

 hurt

 ( or

 help )

 so ciet y e c onomically .

 Shiftin g

 Ele c tricit y

 G eneration

 t o R ene w abl e

 P ow er

 A

 numb er

 of

 p olicie s

 ar e

 e xtr emely

 p opular

 with Americans

 in

 2020

 and

 ha v e

 b e en

 c onsist ently p opular

 acros s

 past

 surv e y s

 as

 well.

 F or

 e x ample, huge

 numb er s

 of

 Americans

 f a v or

 go v ernment

 eff ort t o

 shif t

 ele c tricit y gener a tion

 aw a y fr om

 f ossil

 fuels and

 t ow ar d

 r enew able

 ener gy

 sour c e s.

  In

 20...

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