ACCA-2020Q1全球经济状况调查：全球衰退信号
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The
Global Economic Cond it ions
Survey (GECS),
carried out
joint ly
by ACCA
(the
Associat ion
of
Charter ed
Cert ified Accountants)
and IMA (the
Inst itute
of Management Accountants),
is
t he
lar gest r egular economic survey
of
accountants ar ound
t he
world, in terms of
bot h
t he number of
respondents and t he
range of economic variables
it
monitors. The
GECS
has
been conducted for
over
10
years.
Its
main
ind ices
ar e
good
lead ind icators
of
economic act ivity and pr ovide a
valuable
insight into
t he
views
of
finance pr ofessionals
on key
variables,
such
as investment, employment and costs.
Fieldwork for
t he
Q1 2020
survey
took place between 28
February
and 12
Mar ch 2020
and attracted 983
r esponses
fr om ACCA
and IMA members, includ ing
over 100
CFOS.
ACCA
and IMA would l ike
to
t hank
al l members who took
t he
t ime to
respond to
t he
survey .
It
is
t heir first-hand insights into
t he
fortunes of
companies
ar ound t he
world t hat make
GECS
a
trusted barometer for
t he
global
economy .
The
Global
Economic Conditions
Surv e y
(GECS) is
the
larg est
r e gular economic
surv e y
of accountants
in
the
w orld.
The
Q1 Global Economic Cond it ions Survey
(GECS)
was
conducted fr om
28 February
to
12
Mar ch
inclusive.
This period
included t he
spr ead of
t he COVID-19
to
Eur ope
and t he
US
and saw
some
of
t he
init ial
pol icy
r esponses,
mainly fr om
central banks.
But t he
major impact on economic act ivity fr om
lockdowns and business
closur es
had not
yet begun to
be fel t.
Even
so,
by t his
t ime such
ef fects
were being
fel t
quite
profound ly
in t he
Asia- Pacific
region, t he
source
of
t he
outbr eak. This
geographical spl it
is
reflected in some of
t he
key
ind icators
in t he
Q1 GECS.
Global confidence fel l
to
its
lowest level on recor d
wit h
big
fal ls
in al l
regions. The global
or ders
index, which
tends to
be less
volatile t han
t he
confidence measure, also
fel l
sharply
but
not
to
an
al l-t ime low . In
Asia-Pacific
confidence is
t he
lowest among al l
regions and t he
or ders
balance fel l
by mor e
t han
anywhere
else
in Q1. In
add it ion, t he
regional index of
concern about
suppl iers
going
out
of
business jumped
to
a
recor d
high of
22
in Q1 compar ed
wit h
a
long
run
average
of
8 (Chart
2).
Similarly ,
t he
index of
concern about
customers
going
out
of
business increased
to
37
having
been 27
at t he
end of
2019.
By
comparison, t he
global
ind ices for
Q1 ar e
16
for
concern
about
suppl iers and 22
for
concern
about
customers.
Confidence fel l
everywhere
and,
in most cases,
sharply
and to
t he
lowest levels since
t he
survey
began. The
Q1 dr op
in Asia-Pacific
confidence is
less
t han
t he global
average,
but
confidence here
was already
relat ively
weak
as
a
consequence of
US-China
trade tensions.
Hence
it took
less
of
a
dr op
to
reduce confidence in Asia-
Pacific
to
t he
lowest among al l r egions. W estern
Eur ope
and t he
Midd le East
have
only a
sl ight ly
higher confidence level.
Indeed, t here
is
relat ively
l it t le
Global
confidence
fell
to
its lo w est
le v el
on
r ecor d
with big
falls
in
all
r e g ions.
In Asia-P acific
confidence
is
the
lo w est
among
all
r e g ions
and the
or ders
balance
fell
b y
mor e than
anywher e
else
in
Q1.
Chart
1:
Confidence fal ls
everywhere
GECS
confidence indices: major r egions 40
20
0
-2 0
-4 0
-6 0
-8 0
Q1 2012
Q1 2014
Q1 2016
Q1 2018
Q1 2020
Nort h
America
Asia
Pacific
Midd le East
W estern
Eur ope
South
Asia Sour ce:
ACCA/IMA (2012-20)
Chart
2:
Asia-Pacific
feels
t he
economic pain first Asia
Pacific:
GECS
index of
concern about
suppliers going
out
of
business
25
20
15
10
5
0 Q1 2012
Q1 2014
Q1 2016
Q1 2018
Q1 2020
Sour ce:
ACCA/IMA (2012-20)
The
Q1
Global
Economic Conditions
Surv e y (GECS)
w as
conducted fr om
28
F e bruar y
to
12
Mar ch
inclusi ve .
Global economic conditions
survey
r eport:
Q1, 2020
5
d iver gence in confidence between regions, which
is
to
be
expected given t he
global natur e
of
t he
COVID-19
economic shock.
The
or ders
balance
is
a
bet ter
ind icator of
r eal
economic act ivity t han
sent iment- driven confidence (Chart
4).
The
fal ls
in or ders
may
be
less
extreme t han
for confidence, but
nevert heless
ar e
acr oss
al l r egions. The
regional pat tern r eflects
t he geographical spr ead of
COVID-19
at t he t ime of
t he
Q1 survey
wit h
t he
biggest
fal l in Asia-Pacific
and t he
smal lest
in Africa.
The
global
economy is
head ing
into recession
as
private economic act ivity col lapses
owing to
an
effect ive
lockdown in many
countries.
If t hese
cond it ions
were to
persist
for
t hree
mont hs
or
longer t hen fal ls
in output
approaching 10%
would be
entir ely
possible. (During t he
global financial
crisis
of
2008/09,
t he
worst- af fected economies suf fer ed
ar ound
a 6%
fal l
in GD P.)
Early
data r eleases,
such as
US
jobless
claims
and mont hly
act ivity surveys
in t he
US,
eur ozone and UK
point to
plunging
levels
of
economic output.
Emer ging
market (EM)
economies face add it ional dif ficul t ies
as
a
flight
to
quality among investors
triggers capital outflows. In
add it ion, for
EMs
wit h
a
significant amount of
debt
denominated in US dol lars,
t he
rise
in t he
dol lar
adds
to
t he burden. For
oil
exporters t he
col lapse
in t he
oil
price wil l
exacerbate
t he
economic downturn as
wel l
as
put t ing
furt her pr essur e
on government budgets. The
global
pol icy
r esponse
has
been huge, if
rat her
uncoor d inated. On monetary pol icy ,
central banks
have slashed
inter est
rates
where
possible, launched or
massively
boosted quant itat ive
easing
(QE)
and extended cheap
fund ing
to
t he
banking system.
But fiscal
pol icy
has
to
do
t he
heavy
l ift ing by support ing
private incomes
lost as
a
r esul t
of
t he
crisis.
Governments ar e seeking
to
do
t his
in a
number of
ways. Measur es
intr oduced have
included d irect payments
to
households,
paying t he
wages
of
workers,
boosting
benefit payments
and delaying or
foregoing
tax r eceipts. The
intention
is
to
pr ovide a
‘bridge
of
income’ so
t hat when
economic cond it ions
impr ove,
a
r ecovery
can
be fairly
quickly establ ished.
The
total
size
of
fiscal
packages
is
very
substantial,
wit h t hose
of
t he
US,
UK
and Germany
al l wort h
ar ound
10%
of
GDP
(by
end-Mar ch). It
is
a
measure
of
t he
scale
of
t his
crisis t hat concerns
ar e
being
expr essed
t hat mor e
may
yet be
needed. There
wil l
inevitably be
long-term economic consequences,
al t hough at t his
stage
much
is
conjectur e.
But what
is certain is
t hat t he
publ ic
finances
in many countries wil l
be
in very
lar ge
deficit
t his year ,
pr obably often
exceed ing
10%
of
GDP
and gr eater t han
r eached
during
t he 2008-09
financial
crisis.
Once economies start
to
r ecover
and temporary income support measur es
ar e
removed, t hese deficits wil l
shrink
rapid ly .
But t hey
wil l remain
substantial
and fiscal
r etr enchment wil l
be
necessary
at some
point.
Given
t he
natur e
of
t his
crisis,
it
seems
l ikely
t hat t his
wil l
be
achieved
to
a
gr eater extent t hr ough
higher taxat ion
t han
t hr ough r educed publ ic
spending.
The
falls
in
or ders
ma y
be
less e xtr eme
than
for
confidence , but
ne v ertheless
ar e
acr oss
all r e g ions.
The
r e g ional
pattern r eflects
the
g eo gr aphical spread
of
CO VID-19
at
the time
of
the
Q1
surv ey
with
the bigg est
fall
in
Asia-P acific
and
Chart
3:
Confidence col lapses
almost everywhere
Change
in GECS
confidence between
Q4
2019
and Q1
2020
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
the
smallest
in
Africa.
-35
W estern
Eur ope
Nort h
America
Midd le East
Global Asia
Pacific
South
Asia
Africa
Sour ce:
ACCA/IMA (2012-20)
Chart
4:
Or ders
fal l
in every
region, especially
Asia
Pacific
Change
in GECS
or ders between
Q4
2019
and Q1
2020
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Asia
Pacific
South
Asia Sour ce:
ACCA/IMA (2012-20)
Midd le East
Global Nort h
America
W estern
Eur ope
Africa
1.
Global
and
r e g ional
anal ysis
6
At
t his
point,
t he
GECS
only begins to paint
t he
pictur e
of
t he
global
economic col lapse
brought
on by COVID-19.
The
Q1 survey
was
conducted fr om
28
February
to
12
Mar ch.
In
normal circumstances, economic cond it ions
change
l it t le in t he space
of
just
a
few weeks.
But t hese
ar e not
normal circumstances.
So,
al t hough global
confidence and or ders
bot h
fel l significant ly
in t he
Q1 survey
(Chart
5), t hey
do
not
convey
t he
true scale
of
t he global
economic contract ion
t hat is
now in progr ess.
Or ders
in Q1 ar e
st ill
above t heir al l-t ime low and t he
capital expend itur e and employment ind ices
ar e
relat ively l it t le changed. This
pat tern is
unl ikely
to be
repeated in t he
Q2 survey .
Inflat ion
concerns
fel l
to
a
recor d
low in t he
latest survey .
The
global
economy is
suf fering bot h
a
supply shock
and a demand shock.
But t he
overwhelming for ce
is
one of
a
savage
reduct ion
in
demand t hat wil l
exert downwar d
pr essur e on prices
in t he
short term. (How
can
one measure
t he
prices
in a
basket
of
goods and services
when
a
lar ge
pr oport ion
of t he
usual
basket
is
unavailable?)
For
now d isinflat ion
wil l
persist,
helped
furt her
by t he
dr op
in oil
prices.
There
is
relat ively
l it t le variat ion
in t he economic pr ospects
of
t he
major region...
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