ACCA-2020Q1全球经济状况调查：全球衰退信号

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　The

　Global Economic Cond it ions

　Survey (GECS),

　carried out

　joint ly

　by ACCA

　(the

　Associat ion

　of

　Charter ed

　Cert ified Accountants)

　and IMA (the

　Inst itute

　of Management Accountants),

　is

　t he

　lar gest r egular economic survey

　of

　accountants ar ound

　t he

　world, in terms of

　bot h

　t he number of

　respondents and t he

　range of economic variables

　it

　monitors. The

　GECS

　has

　been conducted for

　over

　10

　years.

　Its

　main

　ind ices

　ar e

　good

　lead ind icators

　of

　economic act ivity and pr ovide a

　valuable

　insight into

　t he

　views

　of

　finance pr ofessionals

　on key

　variables,

　such

　as investment, employment and costs.

　Fieldwork for

　t he

　Q1 2020

　survey

　took place between 28

　February

　and 12

　Mar ch 2020

　and attracted 983

　r esponses

　fr om ACCA

　and IMA members, includ ing

　over 100

　CFOS.

　ACCA

　and IMA would l ike

　to

　t hank

　al l members who took

　t he

　t ime to

　respond to

　t he

　survey .

　It

　is

　t heir first-hand insights into

　t he

　fortunes of

　companies

　ar ound t he

　world t hat make

　GECS

　a

　trusted barometer for

　t he

　global

　economy .

　 The

　Global

　Economic Conditions

　Surv e y

　(GECS) is

　the

　larg est

　r e gular economic

　surv e y

　of accountants

　in

　the

　w orld.

　The

　Q1 Global Economic Cond it ions Survey

　(GECS)

　was

　conducted fr om

　28 February

　to

　12

　Mar ch

　inclusive.

　This period

　included t he

　spr ead of

　t he COVID-19

　to

　Eur ope

　and t he

　US

　and saw

　some

　of

　t he

　init ial

　pol icy

　r esponses,

　mainly fr om

　central banks.

　But t he

　major impact on economic act ivity fr om

　lockdowns and business

　closur es

　had not

　yet begun to

　be fel t.

　Even

　so,

　by t his

　t ime such

　ef fects

　were being

　fel t

　quite

　profound ly

　in t he

　Asia- Pacific

　region, t he

　source

　of

　t he

　outbr eak. This

　geographical spl it

　is

　reflected in some of

　t he

　key

　ind icators

　in t he

　Q1 GECS.

　Global confidence fel l

　to

　its

　lowest level on recor d

　wit h

　big

　fal ls

　in al l

　regions. The global

　or ders

　index, which

　tends to

　be less

　volatile t han

　t he

　confidence measure, also

　fel l

　sharply

　but

　not

　to

　an

　al l-t ime low . In

　Asia-Pacific

　confidence is

　t he

　lowest among al l

　regions and t he

　or ders

　balance fel l

　by mor e

　t han

　anywhere

　else

　in Q1. In

　add it ion, t he

　regional index of

　concern about

　suppl iers

　going

　out

　of

　business jumped

　to

　a

　recor d

　high of

　22

　in Q1 compar ed

　wit h

　a

　long

　run

　average

　of

　8 (Chart

　2).

　Similarly ,

　t he

　index of

　concern about

　customers

　going

　out

　of

　business increased

　to

　37

　having

　been 27

　at t he

　end of

　2019.

　By

　comparison, t he

　global

　ind ices for

　Q1 ar e

　16

　for

　concern

　about

　suppl iers and 22

　for

　concern

　about

　customers.

　Confidence fel l

　everywhere

　and,

　in most cases,

　sharply

　and to

　t he

　lowest levels since

　t he

　survey

　began. The

　Q1 dr op

　in Asia-Pacific

　confidence is

　less

　t han

　t he global

　average,

　but

　confidence here

　was already

　relat ively

　weak

　as

　a

　consequence of

　US-China

　trade tensions.

　Hence

　it took

　less

　of

　a

　dr op

　to

　reduce confidence in Asia-

　Pacific

　to

　t he

　lowest among al l r egions. W estern

　Eur ope

　and t he

　Midd le East

　have

　only a

　sl ight ly

　higher confidence level.

　Indeed, t here

　is

　relat ively

　l it t le

　Global

　confidence

　fell

　to

　its lo w est

　le v el

　on

　r ecor d

　with big

　falls

　in

　all

　r e g ions.

　In Asia-P acific

　confidence

　is

　the

　lo w est

　among

　all

　r e g ions

　and the

　or ders

　balance

　fell

　b y

　mor e than

　anywher e

　else

　in

　Q1.

　Chart

　1:

　Confidence fal ls

　everywhere

　GECS

　confidence indices: major r egions 40

　20

　0

　-2 0

　-4 0

　 -6 0

　-8 0

　Q1 2012

　Q1 2014

　Q1 2016

　 Q1 2018

　 Q1 2020

　Nort h

　America

　Asia

　Pacific

　Midd le East

　W estern

　Eur ope

　South

　Asia Sour ce:

　ACCA/IMA (2012-20)

　Chart

　2:

　Asia-Pacific

　feels

　t he

　economic pain first Asia

　Pacific:

　GECS

　index of

　concern about

　suppliers going

　out

　of

　business

　25

　20

　15

　10

　5

　0 Q1 2012

　Q1 2014

　Q1 2016

　 Q1 2018

　 Q1 2020

　Sour ce:

　ACCA/IMA (2012-20)

　The

　Q1

　Global

　Economic Conditions

　Surv e y (GECS)

　w as

　conducted fr om

　28

　F e bruar y

　to

　12

　Mar ch

　inclusi ve .

　Global economic conditions

　survey

　r eport:

　Q1, 2020

　 5

　d iver gence in confidence between regions, which

　is

　to

　be

　expected given t he

　global natur e

　of

　t he

　COVID-19

　economic shock.

　The

　or ders

　balance

　is

　a

　bet ter

　ind icator of

　r eal

　economic act ivity t han

　sent iment- driven confidence (Chart

　4).

　The

　fal ls

　in or ders

　may

　be

　less

　extreme t han

　for confidence, but

　nevert heless

　ar e

　acr oss

　al l r egions. The

　regional pat tern r eflects

　t he geographical spr ead of

　COVID-19

　at t he t ime of

　t he

　Q1 survey

　wit h

　t he

　biggest

　fal l in Asia-Pacific

　and t he

　smal lest

　in Africa.

　The

　global

　economy is

　head ing

　into recession

　as

　private economic act ivity col lapses

　owing to

　an

　effect ive

　lockdown in many

　countries.

　If t hese

　cond it ions

　were to

　persist

　for

　t hree

　mont hs

　or

　longer t hen fal ls

　in output

　approaching 10%

　would be

　entir ely

　possible. (During t he

　global financial

　crisis

　of

　2008/09,

　t he

　worst- af fected economies suf fer ed

　ar ound

　a 6%

　fal l

　in GD P.)

　Early

　data r eleases,

　such as

　US

　jobless

　claims

　and mont hly

　act ivity surveys

　in t he

　US,

　eur ozone and UK

　point to

　plunging

　levels

　of

　economic output.

　Emer ging

　market (EM)

　economies face add it ional dif ficul t ies

　as

　a

　flight

　to

　quality among investors

　triggers capital outflows. In

　add it ion, for

　EMs

　wit h

　a

　significant amount of

　debt

　denominated in US dol lars,

　t he

　rise

　in t he

　dol lar

　adds

　to

　t he burden. For

　oil

　exporters t he

　col lapse

　in t he

　oil

　price wil l

　exacerbate

　t he

　economic downturn as

　wel l

　as

　put t ing

　furt her pr essur e

　on government budgets. The

　global

　pol icy

　r esponse

　has

　been huge, if

　rat her

　uncoor d inated. On monetary pol icy ,

　central banks

　have slashed

　inter est

　rates

　where

　possible, launched or

　massively

　boosted quant itat ive

　easing

　(QE)

　and extended cheap

　fund ing

　to

　t he

　banking system.

　But fiscal

　pol icy

　has

　to

　do

　t he

　heavy

　l ift ing by support ing

　private incomes

　lost as

　a

　r esul t

　of

　t he

　crisis.

　Governments ar e seeking

　to

　do

　t his

　in a

　number of

　ways. Measur es

　intr oduced have

　included d irect payments

　to

　households,

　paying t he

　wages

　of

　workers,

　boosting

　benefit payments

　and delaying or

　foregoing

　tax r eceipts. The

　intention

　is

　to

　pr ovide a

　‘bridge

　of

　income’ so

　t hat when

　economic cond it ions

　impr ove,

　a

　r ecovery

　can

　be fairly

　quickly establ ished.

　The

　total

　size

　of

　fiscal

　packages

　is

　very

　substantial,

　wit h t hose

　of

　t he

　US,

　UK

　and Germany

　al l wort h

　ar ound

　10%

　of

　GDP

　(by

　end-Mar ch). It

　is

　a

　measure

　of

　t he

　scale

　of

　t his

　crisis t hat concerns

　ar e

　being

　expr essed

　t hat mor e

　may

　yet be

　needed. There

　wil l

　inevitably be

　long-term economic consequences,

　al t hough at t his

　stage

　much

　is

　conjectur e.

　But what

　is certain is

　t hat t he

　publ ic

　finances

　in many countries wil l

　be

　in very

　lar ge

　deficit

　t his year ,

　pr obably often

　exceed ing

　10%

　of

　GDP

　and gr eater t han

　r eached

　during

　t he 2008-09

　financial

　crisis.

　Once economies start

　to

　r ecover

　and temporary income support measur es

　ar e

　removed, t hese deficits wil l

　shrink

　rapid ly .

　But t hey

　wil l remain

　substantial

　and fiscal

　r etr enchment wil l

　be

　necessary

　at some

　point.

　Given

　t he

　natur e

　of

　t his

　crisis,

　it

　seems

　l ikely

　t hat t his

　wil l

　be

　achieved

　to

　a

　gr eater extent t hr ough

　higher taxat ion

　t han

　t hr ough r educed publ ic

　spending.

　The

　falls

　in

　or ders

　ma y

　be

　less e xtr eme

　than

　for

　confidence , but

　ne v ertheless

　ar e

　acr oss

　all r e g ions.

　The

　r e g ional

　pattern r eflects

　the

　g eo gr aphical spread

　of

　CO VID-19

　at

　the time

　of

　the

　Q1

　surv ey

　with

　the bigg est

　fall

　in

　Asia-P acific

　and

　Chart

　3:

　Confidence col lapses

　almost everywhere

　Change

　in GECS

　confidence between

　Q4

　2019

　and Q1

　2020

　0

　-5

　-10

　-15

　-20

　-25

　-30

　the

　smallest

　in

　Africa.

　-35

　W estern

　Eur ope

　Nort h

　America

　Midd le East

　Global Asia

　Pacific

　South

　Asia

　Africa

　Sour ce:

　ACCA/IMA (2012-20)

　Chart

　4:

　Or ders

　fal l

　in every

　region, especially

　Asia

　Pacific

　Change

　in GECS

　or ders between

　Q4

　2019

　and Q1

　2020

　0

　 -2

　 -4

　 -6

　 -8

　 -10

　 -12

　Asia

　Pacific

　South

　Asia Sour ce:

　ACCA/IMA (2012-20)

　 Midd le East

　 Global Nort h

　America

　W estern

　Eur ope

　 Africa

　1.

　Global

　and

　r e g ional

　anal ysis

　 6

　 At

　t his

　point,

　t he

　GECS

　only begins to paint

　t he

　pictur e

　of

　t he

　global

　economic col lapse

　brought

　on by COVID-19.

　The

　Q1 survey

　was

　conducted fr om

　28

　February

　to

　12

　Mar ch.

　In

　normal circumstances, economic cond it ions

　change

　l it t le in t he space

　of

　just

　a

　few weeks.

　But t hese

　ar e not

　normal circumstances.

　So,

　al t hough global

　confidence and or ders

　bot h

　fel l significant ly

　in t he

　Q1 survey

　(Chart

　5), t hey

　do

　not

　convey

　t he

　true scale

　of

　t he global

　economic contract ion

　t hat is

　now in progr ess.

　Or ders

　in Q1 ar e

　st ill

　above t heir al l-t ime low and t he

　capital expend itur e and employment ind ices

　ar e

　relat ively l it t le changed. This

　pat tern is

　unl ikely

　to be

　repeated in t he

　Q2 survey .

　Inflat ion

　concerns

　fel l

　to

　a

　recor d

　low in t he

　latest survey .

　The

　global

　economy is

　suf fering bot h

　a

　supply shock

　and a demand shock.

　But t he

　overwhelming for ce

　is

　one of

　a

　savage

　reduct ion

　in

　 demand t hat wil l

　exert downwar d

　pr essur e on prices

　in t he

　short term. (How

　can

　one measure

　t he

　prices

　in a

　basket

　of

　goods and services

　when

　a

　lar ge

　pr oport ion

　of t he

　usual

　basket

　is

　unavailable?)

　For

　now d isinflat ion

　wil l

　persist,

　helped

　furt her

　by t he

　dr op

　in oil

　prices.

　There

　is

　relat ively

　l it t le variat ion

　in t he economic pr ospects

　of

　t he

　major region...