2020年大选,政客和冠状病毒,黑人命贵,警察和抗议
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The
economy
and
health
car e
ar e
Ame ricans’
t op
election
2020 issues
in
the
polls.
I n
this
issue
of
AEI’s
P olitical R e port ,
we
examine
the
candidates’
stre ngths
on
the m
and
othe r
issues
and
on
their
personal
qualities.
Although questions
ar e
asked
using
diffe r ent
wor ding ,
the
impr essions
conve yed
b y
the
ne w
polls
ar e
similar.
D onald T rump
retains
a
slight
edge
on
handling
the
economy;
J oe
Bide n
leads
on
almost
all
othe r
issues
ex ce pt
crime.
Q:
Who
do
you
think w ould
bet t er
handle
.
.
.
?
(NPR/PBS
Ne wsHour /Marist
P oll,
r egist er ed
v oter s,
A ugust
2020 )
•
Q:
R egardles s
of ho w
you
might v ot e ,
who
do
you
trust
t o
do
a
bet t er
job
on
each
of the f ollo wing—J oe
Biden
or Donald
T rump ?
(F o x
Ne w s,
r egist er ed
v oter s,
A ugust
2020 )
•
Q:
I’ m going
t o
mention a
f e w
is sues
and
f or each one ,
please
t ell
me
if
you
think J oe
Biden
or Donald
T rump w ould
bet t er
handle
that is sue
if
they wer e
elect ed
Pr esi - dent.
( CNN/S SRS,
r egist er ed
v oter s,
A ugust
2020)
•
Q:
Thinking
about
the f ollo wing
charact eristics and
qualities, please
say
whether you
think each
one
applies
mor e
t o
J oe
Biden
or mor e
t o
Donald
T rump.
( CNN/S SRS,
r egist er ed v oter s,
A ugust
2020 )
•
Q:
I
w ould
lik e
you
t o
compar e
Donald
T rump and
J oe
Biden
on
a
f e w
is sues.
F or each
one , please
t ell
me
whether you
think J oe
Biden
or Donald
T rump w ould
be
bet t er
on
that is sue .
If
you
think that both w ould
be
equally
good
or that neither w ould
be
good
on
a
particular
it em,
just
say
so .
Who
do
you
think w ould
be bet t er
when
it
comes
t o
.
.
.
?
(NBC/ W all
Str eet
J ournal ,
r egist er ed
v oter s,
A ugust
2020)
Has
a clear
plan
f or
solving
the
49%
country ’ s
problems
( CNN/S SRS)
43%
Can
manage
the go v ernment
52%
eff ectiv ely
( CNN/S SRS)
44%
W ould
do
a
bet t er
job
on
.
.
.
44%
The
economy
(F o x)
4 7%
45
The
economy
( CNN/S SRS)
53
46
The
economy
(NPR/PBS/Marist)
47
38
Dealing
with the economy
(NBC/ WS J )
48
52%
55
Health
car e
(F o x)
Health
car e
( CNN/S SRS)
3 7%
42
50
Dealing
with health car e
(NBC/ WS J )
34
52%
F or eign
policy
( CNN/S SRS)
45%
49
Dealing
with f or eign
policy
(NBC/ WS J )
39
49
R elations
with China
(F o x)
38
Election
2020:
Candidat e
Str engths,
Per sonal
Qualities
(pp.
1–4)
•
•
P oliticians
and
C or ona virus
(pp.
5–6)
•
Black
Liv es
Mat t e r ,
P olice ,
Pr otests
(p.
7)
•
•
J obs,
Finances,
Work
Lif e
on
Labor
Day
(pp.
8–11)
•
A
M
E
R
I
C
A
N
E
N
T
E
R
P
R
I
S
E
I
N
S
T
I
T
U
T
E
17 89
Mas sachuset ts
A v enue ,
N W ,
Washington, DC
20036
•
202.862.5800
•
www .aei.org
H e r e
we
compar e
the
polls
on
a
fe w
additional
ar eas
including
r acial
issues
and
immigr ation.
J oe
Bide n
leads D onald
T rump
on
r acial
issues,
while
D onald
T rump
leads
on
crime.
The n
we
look
at
the
candidates’
personal qualities.
On
most
personal
qualities,
Bide n
bests
the
pr eside nt .
Ame ricans
ar e
divided
on
which
candidat e
has the
gr eate r
stamina,
sharpness,
and
necessary
me ntal
and
ph ysical
health
t o
be
pr eside nt .
On
being
able
t o
unify the
country
in
the
CNN /S SRS
poll,
Bide n
leads
b y
20 pe r ce ntage
points .
W ould
do
a
bet t er
job
on
.
.
.
53%
Race
r elations
(F o x)
34%
53
Dealing
with r ace
r elations
(NBC/ WS J )
29
56
Racial
inequality
in the US
( CNN/S SRS)
39
58
Race
r elations
(NPR/PBS/Marist)
35
48%
39
P olicing
and
criminal
justice
(F o x) Dealing
with crime
(NBC/ WS J )
42%
43
49%
49
Immigr ation (F o x)
Dealing
with immigr ation (NBC/ WS J )
42%
38
51%
53
52
Is
honest
and
trustworth y
( CNN/S SRS) Car es
about
people
like
you
( CNN/S SRS) Shares
y our values
( CNN/S SRS)
40%
42
43
Has
the stamina and
sharpness
t o
48%
AEI
POLITICAL
REPORT
CONTRIBUTORS
Karlyn
Bowman,
se nior
editor
Claude
A ubert, designe r J acqueline
Clemence, associat e
editor
Michelle
Whitlock, inte rn Samantha Goldstein ,
assistant
editor
The
surve y
r esults
r eported
he r e
we r e
obtained
in
part
fr om
sear ches
of
the
AEI
poll
ar chive,
the
iP oll
D atabank,
and othe r r esour ces
pro vided
b y
the
R ope r Cente r for
P ublic
O pinion
R esearch
at
Cornell
U niversity.
The
Ame rican
Ente rprise
I nstitute
for
P ublic
P olic y
R esearch
( AEI)
is
a
nonpartisan,
nonpr ofit,
501(c)(3)
educational organization
and
does
not
take
institutional
positions
on
any
issues.
The
views
expr essed
he r e
ar e
those
of
the
author[s].
46%
be
president
( CNN/S SRS)
Ha ving
the neces sary mental and
37
ph ysical
health t o
be
president
(NBC/ WS J )
39
43 %
Ha ving
str ong
leader ship
qualities
(NBC/ WS J )
39%
Will
unit e
the country
and
not
55%
divide
it
( CNN/S SRS)
35%
Ha ving
the ability
t o
bring
the
49
country
t ogether
(NBC/ WS J)
26
The
in-depth
polls
that
came
out
in
early
A ugust
all
sho w
a
highly
e ngaged
elect or at e.
All
sho wed
that
impr es - sions
of
J oe
Bide n
ar e
mor e
positive
than
the y
ar e
of
D onald
T rump .
The
vast
majority
of
Bide n
and
T rump
sup - port e rs
sa y
their
minds
ar e
made
up
and
the y
won’t
change
the m.
T rump’s
support e rs
ar e
still
mor e
motivated
b y their
support
for
him;
Bide n
support e rs
car e
most
about
defeating
T rump .
88%
9 2%
Mind
made
up Mind
could
change
61 36%
F a v or able Unfa v or able
44%
49
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
T elephone poll. Sour ce:
NPR/PBS
Ne wsHour /Marist
Poll, A ugust 2020 .
Int erest:
All
of
these
ne w
polls
sho w
high
inte r est
in
the
2020 election.
T o
tak e
just
one,
in
the
F o x
N e ws poll,
62
pe r cent
of
r egist e r ed
vot e rs
we r e
extre mely
inte r est ed;
at
a
comparable
point
in
2016,
45
pe r cent we re,
and
in
2012,
42
pe r cent
we re.
Q:
Ho w
int er est ed
ar e
you
in the presidential
election?
Extremely
int erest ed
2020
62%
2016
45%
2012
42%
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
T elephone poll. Sour ce:
Fox
Ne w s,
lat est
that
of
A ugust 2020 .
Enthusiasm: I n
the
CNN /S SRS
poll,
48
pe r cent
we r e
extre mely
e nthusiastic
about
voting
in
this
year’s
pr esi - de ntial
contest .
Comparable
points
in
earlie r
elections
sho wn
belo w .
Q:
Ho w
enthusiastic w ould
you
say
you
ar e
about
voting
f or pr esident
in this
y ear ’ s
election—e xtr emely
enthusiastic, very
enthusiastic,
somewhat
enthusiastic,
not t oo
enthusiastic,
or not at
all
enthusiastic ?
Extremely
enthusiastic
2020
48%
2016
2 4%
2012
31%
2008
30%
2004
32%
Note:
Sample is
national
adults.
T elephone poll. Sour ce:
CNN/S SRS,
lat est
that
of
A ugust 2020 .
F a vorable
Impressions: I n
all
of
these
polls
that
asked
the
question,
Bide n
had
highe r
fa vor able
marks
and lo we r
unfa vor able
ones
than
T rump .
I n
the
NPR/PBS
N e wsH our /M arist
Poll,
44
pe r cent
of
r egist e r ed
vot e rs said
the y
had
a
fa vor able
impr ession
of
J oe
Bide n
and
4 9 pe r cent
an
unfa vor able
one.
Those
responses
for T rump
we r e
36
and
61
pe r cent,
r espectively.
I n
all
the
polls
that
asked
about
the
inte nsity
of
people’s
impr es - sions,
str ongly
unfa vor able
vie ws
of
T rump
we r e
much
highe r
than
str ongly
unfa vor able
vie ws
of
Biden.
Q:
In
gener al,
do
you
have
a
f av or able
or an
unf av or able
impr es sion
of .
.
.
?
Minds Made Up:
Ninety-two
pe r cent
of
Bide n/K amala
Harris
vot e rs
in
the
CNN /S SRS
poll
said
their
minds we r e
made
up
(7 pe r cent
said
the y
could
change
their
minds);
88
pe r cent
of
T rump/M ik e
P ence
support e rs said
the y
we r e
sur e,
while
12
pe r cent
said
the y
could
change.
Q:
Is y our mind
made
up
about
who
you
will v ot e
f or ,
or is it
pos sible
you
w ould
change
y our mind?
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
T elephone poll. Sour ce:
CNN/S SRS,
A ugust 2020 .
12 7
I n
all
the
major
polls
that
came
out
in
A ugust
befor e
the
conve ntions,
J oe
Bide n
led
D onald
T rump .
Belo w
we look
at
the
contests
in
these
substantial
polls.
The
st ory
is
one
of
stability,
not
change.
Q:
If
No v ember ’ s
election
f or pr esident
wer e
held
t oday ,
whom
w ould
you
support
.
.
.
?
53%
A ugust
42%
52
June
44
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
T elephone poll.
Sour ce:
NPR/PBS
Ne wsHour /Marist
Poll, lat est
that
of
A ugust 2020 .
Q:
If
the presidential
election
wer e
t oda y ,
ho w
w ould
you
v ot e
if
the candidat es
wer e
..... ?
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
T elephone poll. Sour ce:
Fox
Ne w s,
lat est
that
of
A ugust 2020 .
Q:
If
No v ember ’ s
election
f or pr esident
wer e
held
t oday ,
whom
w ould
you
support
if
the candidat es
ar e
...... ?
Note:
Sample is
r egist er ed
voter s.
Online probability-based panel surv ey . Sour ce:
P ew R esear ch
C enter ,
lat est
that
of
A ugust 2020 .
Q:
Suppose
that the presidential
election
wer e
being
held
t oday
and
you
had
t o
choose
betw een
.
Who
w ould
you
be
mor e
lik ely
t o
v ot e
f or? 50%
A ugust
46%
55
June
41 Note:
Sample is
national
adults.
T elephone poll.
A ugust question
included the
names
of
the
V ice
Pr e...
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