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2020年大选,政客和冠状病毒,黑人命贵,警察和抗议

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2020年大选,政客和冠状病毒,黑人命贵,警察和抗议

 

 The

 economy

 and

 health

 car e

 ar e

 Ame ricans’

 t op

 election

 2020 issues

 in

 the

 polls.

 I n

 this

 issue

 of

 AEI’s

 P olitical R e port ,

 we

 examine

 the

 candidates’

 stre ngths

 on

 the m

 and

 othe r

 issues

 and

 on

 their

 personal

 qualities.

 Although questions

 ar e

 asked

 using

 diffe r ent

 wor ding ,

 the

 impr essions

 conve yed

 b y

 the

 ne w

 polls

 ar e

 similar.

 D onald T rump

 retains

 a

 slight

 edge

 on

 handling

 the

 economy;

 J oe

 Bide n

 leads

 on

 almost

 all

 othe r

 issues

 ex ce pt

 crime.

 Q:

 Who

 do

 you

 think w ould

 bet t er

 handle

 .

 .

 .

 ?

 (NPR/PBS

 Ne wsHour /Marist

 P oll,

 r egist er ed

 v oter s,

 A ugust

 2020 )

 •

 Q:

 R egardles s

 of ho w

 you

 might v ot e ,

 who

 do

 you

 trust

 t o

 do

 a

 bet t er

 job

 on

 each

 of the f ollo wing—J oe

 Biden

 or Donald

 T rump ?

 (F o x

 Ne w s,

 r egist er ed

 v oter s,

 A ugust

 2020 )

  •

 Q:

 I’ m going

 t o

 mention a

 f e w

 is sues

 and

 f or each one ,

 please

 t ell

 me

 if

 you

 think J oe

 Biden

 or Donald

 T rump w ould

 bet t er

 handle

 that is sue

 if

 they wer e

 elect ed

 Pr esi - dent.

 ( CNN/S SRS,

 r egist er ed

 v oter s,

 A ugust

 2020)

  •

 Q:

 Thinking

 about

 the f ollo wing

 charact eristics and

 qualities, please

 say

 whether you

 think each

 one

 applies

 mor e

 t o

 J oe

 Biden

 or mor e

 t o

 Donald

 T rump.

 ( CNN/S SRS,

 r egist er ed v oter s,

 A ugust

 2020 )

  •

 Q:

 I

 w ould

 lik e

 you

 t o

 compar e

 Donald

 T rump and

 J oe

 Biden

 on

 a

 f e w

 is sues.

 F or each

 one , please

 t ell

 me

 whether you

 think J oe

 Biden

 or Donald

 T rump w ould

 be

 bet t er

 on

 that is sue .

 If

 you

 think that both w ould

 be

 equally

 good

 or that neither w ould

 be

 good

 on

 a

 particular

 it em,

 just

 say

 so .

 Who

 do

 you

 think w ould

 be bet t er

 when

 it

 comes

 t o

 .

 .

 .

 ?

 (NBC/ W all

 Str eet

 J ournal ,

 r egist er ed

 v oter s,

 A ugust

 2020)

  Has

 a clear

 plan

 f or

 solving

 the

 49%

 country ’ s

 problems

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  43%

 Can

 manage

 the go v ernment

  52%

 eff ectiv ely

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  44%

 W ould

 do

 a

 bet t er

 job

 on

 .

 .

 .

 44%

 The

 economy

 (F o x)

  4 7%

 45

 The

 economy

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  53

 46

 The

 economy

 (NPR/PBS/Marist)

  47

  38

  Dealing

 with the economy

 (NBC/ WS J )

  48

 52%

 55

 Health

 car e

 (F o x)

 Health

 car e

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  3 7%

 42

 50

 Dealing

 with health car e

 (NBC/ WS J )

  34

  52%

  F or eign

 policy

 ( CNN/S SRS)

 45%

 49

 Dealing

 with f or eign

 policy

 (NBC/ WS J )

  39

 49

 R elations

 with China

 (F o x)

  38

 Election

 2020:

 Candidat e

 Str engths,

 Per sonal

 Qualities

 (pp.

 1–4)

 •

 •

 P oliticians

 and

 C or ona virus

 (pp.

 5–6)

 •

 Black

 Liv es

 Mat t e r ,

 P olice ,

 Pr otests

 (p.

 7)

 •

 •

 J obs,

 Finances,

 Work

 Lif e

 on

 Labor

 Day

 (pp.

 8–11)

 •

 A

  M

  E

  R

  I

  C

  A

  N

 E

  N

  T

  E

  R

  P

  R

  I

  S

  E

 I

  N

  S

  T

  I

  T

  U

 T

  E

 17 89

 Mas sachuset ts

 A v enue ,

 N W ,

 Washington, DC

 20036

  •

 202.862.5800

  •

 www .aei.org

  H e r e

 we

 compar e

 the

 polls

 on

 a

 fe w

 additional

 ar eas

 including

 r acial

 issues

 and

 immigr ation.

 J oe

 Bide n

 leads D onald

 T rump

 on

 r acial

 issues,

 while

 D onald

 T rump

 leads

 on

 crime.

 The n

 we

 look

 at

 the

 candidates’

 personal qualities.

 On

 most

 personal

 qualities,

 Bide n

 bests

 the

 pr eside nt .

 Ame ricans

 ar e

 divided

 on

 which

 candidat e

 has the

 gr eate r

 stamina,

 sharpness,

 and

 necessary

 me ntal

 and

 ph ysical

 health

 t o

 be

 pr eside nt .

 On

 being

 able

 t o

 unify the

 country

 in

 the

 CNN /S SRS

 poll,

 Bide n

 leads

 b y

 20 pe r ce ntage

 points .

 W ould

 do

 a

 bet t er

 job

 on

 .

 .

 .

 53%

 Race

 r elations

 (F o x)

 34%

 53

 Dealing

 with r ace

 r elations

 (NBC/ WS J )

  29

 56

 Racial

 inequality

 in the US

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  39

 58

 Race

 r elations

 (NPR/PBS/Marist)

  35

 48%

 39

 P olicing

 and

 criminal

 justice

 (F o x) Dealing

 with crime

 (NBC/ WS J )

 42%

 43

 49%

 49

 Immigr ation (F o x)

 Dealing

 with immigr ation (NBC/ WS J )

 42%

 38

 51%

 53

 52

  Is

 honest

 and

 trustworth y

 ( CNN/S SRS) Car es

 about

 people

 like

 you

 ( CNN/S SRS) Shares

 y our values

 ( CNN/S SRS)

  40%

 42

 43

  Has

 the stamina and

 sharpness

 t o

 48%

 AEI

 POLITICAL

 REPORT

 CONTRIBUTORS

 Karlyn

 Bowman,

 se nior

 editor

 Claude

 A ubert, designe r J acqueline

 Clemence, associat e

 editor

 Michelle

 Whitlock, inte rn Samantha Goldstein ,

 assistant

 editor

  The

 surve y

 r esults

 r eported

 he r e

 we r e

 obtained

 in

 part

 fr om

 sear ches

 of

 the

 AEI

 poll

 ar chive,

 the

 iP oll

 D atabank,

 and othe r r esour ces

 pro vided

 b y

 the

 R ope r Cente r for

 P ublic

 O pinion

 R esearch

 at

 Cornell

 U niversity.

 The

 Ame rican

 Ente rprise

 I nstitute

 for

 P ublic

 P olic y

 R esearch

 ( AEI)

 is

 a

 nonpartisan,

 nonpr ofit,

 501(c)(3)

 educational organization

 and

 does

 not

 take

 institutional

 positions

 on

 any

 issues.

 The

 views

 expr essed

 he r e

 ar e

 those

 of

 the

 author[s].

  46%

 be

 president

 ( CNN/S SRS)

 Ha ving

 the neces sary mental and

  37

  ph ysical

 health t o

 be

 president

 (NBC/ WS J )

 39

  43 %

  Ha ving

 str ong

 leader ship

 qualities

 (NBC/ WS J )

 39%

 Will

 unit e

 the country

 and

 not

 55%

  divide

 it

 ( CNN/S SRS)

 35%

 Ha ving

 the ability

 t o

 bring

 the

  49

 country

 t ogether

 (NBC/ WS J)

  26

  The

 in-depth

 polls

 that

 came

 out

 in

 early

 A ugust

 all

 sho w

 a

 highly

 e ngaged

 elect or at e.

 All

 sho wed

 that

 impr es - sions

 of

 J oe

 Bide n

 ar e

 mor e

 positive

 than

 the y

 ar e

 of

 D onald

 T rump .

 The

 vast

 majority

 of

 Bide n

 and

 T rump

 sup - port e rs

 sa y

 their

 minds

 ar e

 made

 up

 and

 the y

 won’t

 change

 the m.

 T rump’s

 support e rs

 ar e

 still

 mor e

 motivated

 b y their

 support

 for

 him;

 Bide n

 support e rs

 car e

 most

 about

 defeating

 T rump .

  88%

 9 2%

 Mind

 made

 up Mind

 could

 change

 61 36%

 F a v or able Unfa v or able

 44%

 49

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 T elephone poll. Sour ce:

 NPR/PBS

 Ne wsHour /Marist

 Poll, A ugust 2020 .

 Int erest:

 All

 of

 these

 ne w

 polls

 sho w

 high

 inte r est

 in

 the

 2020 election.

 T o

 tak e

 just

 one,

 in

 the

 F o x

 N e ws poll,

 62

 pe r cent

 of

 r egist e r ed

 vot e rs

 we r e

 extre mely

 inte r est ed;

 at

 a

 comparable

 point

 in

 2016,

 45

 pe r cent we re,

 and

 in

 2012,

 42

 pe r cent

 we re.

 Q:

 Ho w

 int er est ed

 ar e

 you

 in the presidential

 election?

 Extremely

 int erest ed

 2020

 62%

 2016

 45%

 2012

 42%

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 T elephone poll. Sour ce:

 Fox

 Ne w s,

 lat est

 that

 of

 A ugust 2020 .

 Enthusiasm: I n

 the

 CNN /S SRS

 poll,

 48

 pe r cent

 we r e

 extre mely

 e nthusiastic

 about

 voting

 in

 this

 year’s

 pr esi - de ntial

 contest .

 Comparable

 points

 in

 earlie r

 elections

 sho wn

 belo w .

 Q:

 Ho w

 enthusiastic w ould

 you

 say

 you

 ar e

 about

 voting

 f or pr esident

 in this

 y ear ’ s

 election—e xtr emely

 enthusiastic, very

 enthusiastic,

 somewhat

 enthusiastic,

 not t oo

 enthusiastic,

 or not at

 all

 enthusiastic ?

 Extremely

 enthusiastic

 2020

 48%

 2016

 2 4%

 2012

 31%

 2008

 30%

 2004

  32%

 Note:

 Sample is

 national

 adults.

 T elephone poll. Sour ce:

 CNN/S SRS,

 lat est

 that

 of

 A ugust 2020 .

 F a vorable

 Impressions: I n

 all

 of

 these

 polls

 that

 asked

 the

 question,

 Bide n

 had

 highe r

 fa vor able

 marks

 and lo we r

 unfa vor able

 ones

 than

 T rump .

 I n

 the

 NPR/PBS

 N e wsH our /M arist

 Poll,

 44

 pe r cent

 of

 r egist e r ed

 vot e rs said

 the y

 had

 a

 fa vor able

 impr ession

 of

 J oe

 Bide n

 and

 4 9 pe r cent

 an

 unfa vor able

 one.

 Those

 responses

 for T rump

 we r e

 36

 and

 61

 pe r cent,

 r espectively.

 I n

 all

 the

 polls

 that

 asked

 about

 the

 inte nsity

 of

 people’s

 impr es - sions,

 str ongly

 unfa vor able

 vie ws

 of

 T rump

 we r e

 much

 highe r

 than

 str ongly

 unfa vor able

 vie ws

 of

 Biden.

 Q:

 In

 gener al,

 do

 you

 have

 a

 f av or able

 or an

 unf av or able

 impr es sion

 of .

 .

 .

 ?

 Minds Made Up:

 Ninety-two

 pe r cent

 of

 Bide n/K amala

 Harris

 vot e rs

 in

 the

 CNN /S SRS

 poll

 said

 their

 minds we r e

 made

 up

 (7 pe r cent

 said

 the y

 could

 change

 their

 minds);

 88

 pe r cent

 of

 T rump/M ik e

 P ence

 support e rs said

 the y

 we r e

 sur e,

 while

 12

 pe r cent

 said

 the y

 could

 change.

 Q:

 Is y our mind

 made

 up

 about

 who

 you

 will v ot e

 f or ,

 or is it

 pos sible

 you

 w ould

 change

 y our mind?

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 T elephone poll. Sour ce:

 CNN/S SRS,

 A ugust 2020 .

 12 7

  I n

 all

 the

 major

 polls

 that

 came

 out

 in

 A ugust

 befor e

 the

 conve ntions,

 J oe

 Bide n

 led

 D onald

 T rump .

 Belo w

 we look

 at

 the

 contests

 in

 these

 substantial

 polls.

 The

 st ory

 is

 one

 of

 stability,

 not

 change.

 Q:

 If

 No v ember ’ s

 election

 f or pr esident

 wer e

 held

 t oday ,

 whom

 w ould

 you

 support

  .

 .

 .

 ?

 53%

 A ugust

 42%

 52

 June

  44

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 T elephone poll.

 Sour ce:

 NPR/PBS

 Ne wsHour /Marist

 Poll, lat est

 that

 of

 A ugust 2020 .

 Q:

 If

 the presidential

 election

 wer e

 t oda y ,

 ho w

 w ould

 you

 v ot e

 if

 the candidat es

 wer e

  ..... ?

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 T elephone poll. Sour ce:

 Fox

 Ne w s,

 lat est

 that

 of

 A ugust 2020 .

 Q:

 If

 No v ember ’ s

 election

 f or pr esident

 wer e

 held

 t oday ,

 whom

 w ould

 you

 support

 if

 the candidat es

 ar e

  ...... ?

 Note:

 Sample is

 r egist er ed

 voter s.

 Online probability-based panel surv ey . Sour ce:

 P ew R esear ch

 C enter ,

 lat est

 that

 of

 A ugust 2020 .

 Q:

 Suppose

 that the presidential

 election

 wer e

 being

 held

 t oday

 and

 you

 had

 t o

 choose

 betw een

 .

 Who

 w ould

 you

 be

 mor e

 lik ely

 t o

 v ot e

 f or? 50%

 A ugust

 46%

 55

 June

  41 Note:

 Sample is

 national

 adults.

 T elephone poll.

 A ugust question

 included the

 names

 of

 the

 V ice

 Pr e...

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