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对2020年底医疗技术和分销思考【优秀范文】

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对2020年底医疗技术和分销思考【优秀范文】

 

 North America Equity Research September 2020

 Healthcare Technology & Distribution Thoughts Across Healthcare Technology & Distribution into Year End 2020

  Sector Lisa C. Gill AC

 (212) 622-6466 lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA GILL<GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

 Michael R. Minchak AC

 (212) 622-6506 michael.minchak@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

 Anne E. Samuel AC

 (212) 622-4163 anne.e.samuel@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

  See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

  J.P.

 M

 organ

 Healthcare

 Technology

 &

 Di

 stribution

 Coverage

 Universe

  Company

 Ticker

  JPM Rating

  Distributors

 AmerisourceBergen

 ABC

 OW

 Cardinal

 Health

 CAH

 N

 McKesson

 MCK

 OW

 Ow

 ens

 &

 Minor

 OMI

 UW

  Price

 52-Week

 Range

  %

 Change

  Market

 Cap

  Price/Earnings

 Ratio

  Enterprise

 Value

 /EBITDA

  Dividend

  Target

 High

 Low

 YTD

 (billions)

 2020E

 2021E

 2020E

 2021E

 Yield

 Price

 $94.08

 $106.45

 $72.06

 10.7%

 $19.3

 11.7

 11.1

 8.0

 7.7

 1.8%

 $114.00

 $48.38

 $60.69

 $39.05

 -4.3%

 $14.2

 9.5

 8.3

 6.9

 6.3

 4.0%

 $58.00

 $150.37

 $172.18

 $112.60

 8.7%

 $24.6

 10.2

 9.0

 7.8

 7.1

 1.1%

 $198.00

 $15.70

 $17.66

 $3.63

 203.7%

 $1.0

 15.0

 12.0

 10.4

 9.4

 0.1%

 $12.00

 Pharma

 Distributors

 ave

 rage

  5.0%

  10.4

 9.5

 7.6

 7.1

 Dental

 Distributors

 (covered

 by

 M

 .

 M

 inchak)

  Henry

 Schein

 HSIC

 N

 $64.37

 $73.99

 $41.85

 -3.5%

 $9.2

 25.6

 17.5

 16.1

 12.3

 N/A

 $66.00

 Patterson

 Cos

 PDCO

 N

 $23.92

 $30.38

 $12.93

 16.8%

 $2.3

 16.0

 15.0

 10.9

 10.8

 4.3%

 $23.00

 Dental

 Distributor

 average

  6.6%

  20.8

 16.3

 13.5

 11.5

 All

 Distributors

 average

  32.6%

  15.6

 12.6

 10.9

 9.4

  Retail

 Pharmacy

  CVS

 Health

 CVS

 OW

 $57.40

 $77.03

 $52.04

 -22.7%

 $75.4

 8.0

 7.8

 7.9

 7.7

 3.5%

 $102.00

 Rite

 Aid

 RAD

 N

 $11.79

 $23.88

 $6.59

 -23.8%

 $0.6

 N/A

 N/A

 7.3

 7.2

 N/A

 $17.00

 Walgreens

 Boots

 Alliance

 WBA

 N

 $34.70

 $64.50

 $33.88

 -41.1%

 $30.4

 8.1

 6.6

 7.3

 6.3

 5.4%

 $43.00

 Retail

 Pharm

 acy

 average

  -29.2%

  8.0

 7.2

 7.5

 7.1

 CVS

 and

 WBA

 ave

 rage

  -31.9%

  8.0

 7.2

 7.6

 7.0

  Clinical

 Laboratories

  LabCorp

 LH

 OW

 $181.47

 $206.74

 $98.02

 7.3%

 $17.9

 14.8

 12.0

 12.2

 10.2

 N/A

 $227.00

 Quest

 Diagnostics

 DGX

 N

 $110.33

 $131.81

 $73.02

 3.3%

 $15.3

 13.1

 10.4

 10.0

 8.4

 2.0%

 $159.00

 Clinical

 Laboratory

 average

  5.3%

  13.9

 11.2

 11.1

 9.3

  Other

  Cerner

 CERN

 N

 $70.95

 $80.90

 $53.08

 -3.3%

 $22.3

 25.0

 22.9

 12.9

 12.2

 1.0%

 $74.00

 Change

 Healthcare

 CHNG

 OW

 $14.32

 $17.57

 $6.18

 -12.6%

 $4.6

 12.0

 499.7

 10.2

 9.7

 N/A

 $17.00

 One

 Medical

 ONEM

 OW

 $27.57

 $44.87

 $15.00

 96.9%

 $4.3

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $40.00

 Premier

 PINC

 N

 $31.11

 $39.70

 $27.11

 -17.9%

 $3.8

 12.2

 12.5

 7.3

 7.4

 N/A

 $33.00

 Teladoc

 TDOC

 OW

 $189.91

 $253.00

 $60.05

 126.8%

 $17.2

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $266.00

  Healthcare

 IT

 (covered

 by

 A.

 Samuel)

  Allscripts

 MDRX

 N

 $8.67

 $11.82

 $4.56

 -11.7%

 $0.2

 13.1

 12.8

 4.0

 3.7

 N/A

 $9.00

 Evolent

 Health

 EVH

 N

 $12.87

 $14.50

 $3.50

 42.2%

 $1.1

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $12.00

 Health

 Catalyst

 HCAT

 OW

 $34.50

 $41.26

 $17.48

 -0.6%

 $1.4

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $42.00

 HealthEquity

 HQY

 OW

 $51.56

 $88.78

 $34.40

 -30.4%

 $4.0

 35.5

 30.0

 23.5

 19.9

 N/A

 $61.00

 Livongo

 LVGO

 OW

 $121.72

 $150.00

 $15.12

 385.7%

 $12.2

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $88.00

 NextGen

 NXGN

 UW

 $13.38

 $18.49

 $5.10

 -16.7%

 $0.9

 17.3

 17.1

 8.8

 8.7

 N/A

 $12.00

 Phreesia

 PHR

 OW

 $28.15

 $34.85

 $16.01

 5.7%

 $1.1

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $35.00

 Progyny

 PGNY

 OW

 $25.86

 $36.50

 $13.29

 -5.8%

 $2.2

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 N/A

 $35.00

 Healthcare

 IT

 average

 (including

 CERN,

 PINC)

  43.4%

  20.6

 19.1

 11.3

 10.4

 S&P

 500

 SPX

 3,340.97

 3,588.11

 2,191.86

 3.4%

  25.5x

 20.1x

  So urce: B lo omberg and J.P . M organ estimates. * Target Prices for RAD, CHNG, P IN C, M DRX, HQY and P GNY are based on an EV/EB ITDA multiple; ONEM , TDOC, EVH, HC AT, LVGO and PHR based o n EV/sales multiple; all others based o n a P/E multiple. Note: J.P . M organ ratings: OW = Overweight; N = Neutral; and UW = Underweight; NR = No t Rated. Source:

 Bloomberg.

 Pricing

 as

 of

 9/11/2020

 2

  3

 Source:

 J.P.

 Morgan.

 Value-Based Care

 • Ongoing

 interest

 in

 value-based

 models that

 tie

 reimbursement

 to

 health

 outcomes

 • Companies

 that

 are

 part

 of

 the

 cost solution

 stand

 to

 benefit

 the

 most

 from

 this trend

 Specialty

 • Specialty

 remains

 the

 fastest

 growing

 area of

 drug

 spend

 • With

 payors

 looking

 for

 ways

 to

 address rising

 specialty

 costs,

 companies

 that

 help manage

 specialty

 spend

 likely

 to

 benefit

 Political/Regulatory

 • The

 potential

 for

 regulatory

 changes

 has led

 to

 a

 broader

 overhang

 on

 the

 sector

 • However,

 for

 substantial

 reform

 to

 pass, would

 need

 a

 bipartisan

 solution,

 alignment of

 Congress/White

 House,

 with

 >60

 votes in

 the

 Senate

 Capital Deployment

 • We

 favor

 companies

 with

 strong

 balance sheets

 and

 good

 cash

 flow

 • Recent

 transformative

 deals

 and

 the potential

 for

 disruptive

 entrants

 could

 lead to

 a

 more

 active

 pursuit

 of

 M&A

 and/or

 joint ventures

 in

 the

 near

 term

 The Consumer – The Single Biggest Disrupter in Healthcare

 • Patients

 (consumers)

 are

 getting

 more

 educated

 and

 involved

 in

 their

 healthcare

 and

 making decisions

 on

 how

 to

 allocate

 their

 healthcare

 dollars

 • The

 opportunity

 to

 engage

 the

 patient

 at

 their

 preferred

 point

 of

 service

 should

 be

 an

 important differentiator

 • Convenience,

 quality

 and

 cost

 will

 be

 key

 Key Themes Across the Sector

  The

 S&P

 500

 is

 up

 +3.4%

 YTD

 in

 2020

 and

 the

 S&P

 500

 Health

 Care

 Sector

 Index

 is

 up

 +2.3% YTD.

  Our

 covered

 companies

 are

 up

 +28.6%,

 on

 average,

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 although

 excluding TDOC,

 LVGO

 and

 OMI,

 our

 companies

 are

 down

 -4.4%

 YTD

 on

 average.

 

 Pharmaceutical

 Distributors

 are

 up

 +5.0%

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 on

 average,

 with

 both

 ABC

 and

 MCK outperforming

 CAH

 (ABC

 is

 up

 +10.7%

 and

 MCK

 is

 up

 +8.7%

 while

 CAH

 is

 down

 -4.3%). 

 Drug

 Retailers

 are

 down

 -29.2%

 on

 average

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 and

 the

 worst

 performing

 subsector. CVS

 is

 down

 -22.7%

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 outperforming

 WBA

 (down

 -41.1%

 YTD,

 and

 the

 worst performing

 stock

 in

 our

 coverage

 universe),

 while

 RAD

 is

 down

 -23.8%

 YTD. 

 Clinical

 Labs

 are

 up

 +5.3%

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 with

 LH

 up

 +7.3%

 YTD

 and

 DGX

 up

 +3.3%

 YTD.  

 Dental

 Distributors

 are

 up

 +6.6%

 on

 average

 YTD

 in

 2020,

 with

 HSIC

 down

 -3.5%

 YTD,

 while PDCO

 is

 up

 16.8%

 after

 underperforming

 in

 prior

 years. 

 Healthcare

 IT

 is

 up

 +40.6%

 YTD

 on

 average

 in

 2020,

 driven

 by

 the

 sharp

 increase

 in

 LVGO (which

 is

 up

 386%

 YTD

 and

 is

 the

 best

 performing

 stock

 in

 our

 coverage

 universe).

  Excluding LVGO,

 Healthcare

 IT

 is

 down

 -2.6%

 YTD

 with

 EVH

 up

 +42.2%,

 while

 HQY

 is

 down

 -30.4%

 and NXGN

 is

 down

 -16.7%. 

 Among

 stocks

 not

 included

 within

 the

 five

 subsectors

 discussed

 above,

 TDOC

 (a

 Telehealth provider)

 is

 up

 +126.8%

 YTD

 in

 2020

 (the

 third

 best

 performing

 stock

 in

 our

 coverage

 universe) as

 COVID-19

 has

 driven

 increased

 awareness

 and

 utilization,

 while

 ONEM

 (a

 tech-enabled primary

 care

 provider )

 is

 up

 96.9%

 since

 its

 IPO

 on

 1/30/2020,

 while

 OMI

 (a

 Medical

 Supply Distributor )

 in

 up

 203.7%

 YTD

 in

 2020

 (the

 second

 best

 performing

 stock)

 driven

 by

 demand

 for PPE).

  Finally,

 PINC

 (a

 GPO

 and

 Technology

 Services

 provider)

 is

 down

 -17.9%

 YTD. 

  HCAT, -0.6% CERN, -3.3% HSIC, -3.5% CAH, -4.3% PGNY, -5.8% MDRX, -11.7% NXGN, -16.7% PINC, -17.9% CVS, -22.7% RAD, -23.8% HQY, -30.4% WBA, -41.1%

 EVH, 42.2% PDCO, 16.8% ABC, 10.7% MCK, 8.7% LH, 7.3% PHR, 5.7% DGX, 3.3%

 OMI, 203.7% TDOC, 126.8% LVGO, 385.7% Stock Performance YTD in 2020 by Company

 30%

 20%

 10%

 0%

 -10%

 -20%

 -30%

 -40%

 -50%

 Drug

 Distributor

 Drug

 Retail

 Labs

 Dental

 Dist

 Healthcare

 IT

 ex

 LVGO

 S&P

 500

 Sector Return

 Healthcare IT 40.6% Dental Dist 6.6% Labs 5.3% Drug Distributor 5.0% S&P 500 3.4% Healthcare IT ex LVGO -2.6%

 Drug Retail -29.2%

  Stock Performance YTD in 2020 by Sector

  Implied

 Upside

  CVS Health Ticker:

 CVS Rating:

 Overweight

 Dec-21

 Price

 Target:

 $102

  Rationale: Play on key theme, with path to accelerating growth and attractive valuation • We believe CVS is one of the best positioned companies across our coverage universe over the longer term • Integrated model and broad suite of services position CVS well in an evolving marketplace characterized by the ongoing “retailization” of healthcare and shift to new reimbursement models (value-based care) • CVS brings a unique integrated model to marketplace.

 Combined entity to drive lower overall health costs through data/analytics, more effective patient engagement and shifting care to lower cost sites • CVS previously provided a favorable outlook for next several years, with a return to double-digit EPS growth in 2022 driven by integration synergies, enterprise modernization and transformation initiatives.

 78%

 Top Pick

  We

 believe

 recent

 underperformance

 has

 been

 driven

 by

 two

 key

 factors

  Investor

 feedback:

 Why

 own

 it

 today

 when

 we

 can

 have

 clarity

 on

 both

 issues

 in November

 (CVS

 is

 currently

 scheduled

 to

 report

 3Q20

 results

 on

 November

 6)?

 

 Uncertainty

 around

 the

 2021

 Outlook

 

 What

 is

 the

 appropriate

 jumping

 off

 point

 for

 2021

 adjusted

 EPS

 given

 some

 of

 the non-rec...

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