评估COVID-19潜影,响【完整版】
下面是小编为大家整理的评估COVID-19潜影,响【完整版】,供大家参考。
H o n g
K o n g
Offi ce
Acce ss i n g
th e
pote n ti al
i mpact
of
CO VI D - 1 9 ; u p g r ad i n g
of f i ce
lan d lor d s
to
N e u tr al
W e
l owe r
C e n tra l
o ffi c e
re n t
fo re c as ts 20 - 2 5%
t o
r ef l ec t
t h e
C O V I D - 19
o u t b r eak W e
upg rad e
S w i re,
Hy s an
an d HK L
fro m Sel l
to
Neu tral
as
w e
th i nk th ey
h ave
s tro ng e nough f i nanc i a l s
t o m a i nt a i n
s t ea dy
di v i de n ds .
I n Q 120, C e nt r al
G rad e -A
o ffi ce
ren t fel l
9 %
Q o Q ,
an d
vac an c i es
ro s e
fu rth er ,
to
4.2 %,
a s
o f
F eb ru ary ,
th e
s h arp es t de t e r i or a t i on s i nc e
t he
2008 gl oba l
f i nanc i a l
c r i s i s
( G F C ) . C om bi ne d w i t h l ow e r bus i ne ss c onf i denc e
a nd
hi ghe r
f und
r e de m pt i on
pr e ss ur e s ,
w e
l ow e r
our
2020
Ce n tral
o ffi ce ren t
fo rec as t
fro m
a
10- 15%
de c li ne
t o
a
20- 25%
de c li ne
a nd
ex pe c t
vaca nc i e s
t o s ur pa ss
8% , a
4ppt
r i s e , by
e nd-2020, i n li ne
w i t h t he
pe r i od dur i ng t he
S A R S
out br ea k a nd ba s e d on our a ss um pt i on t ha t
t he
COV I D -19 out br ea k i n H ong K ong w ill
lik e ly
b e c on tai n e d b y
th e
s u mmer.
Th e
s ec to r i s
trad i ng at
di s c ount s
of
50%
on N A V
a nd 4.4 % on 202 0E
y i e l d s pr ea d, -3. 0S D / + 4. 0S D
c om pa r e d w i t h i t s
10- y ear
trad i ng av er ag e,
c l o s e to
th e
G F C
tro ugh. W e
th u s
b el i eve
t he
w ea k ea r ni n gs
out l ook i s
pr i ce d i n. S t r o n g
ca pa b ili t y
t o
ma i n t a i n
d i v i d e n d ;
l oo k i n g
b e y o n d
t h e
C O V I D - 19
o u t b r eak W e
b el i eve
o ffi ce
l an d l ord s
( Sw i re,
Hy s an
an d
HK L )
h ave
s t rong
en ough
fi n an c i al s
t o mai n tai n a b s o l u te
DPS,
mai n l y
o w i ng t o th ei r: 1 )
s u s tai n ab l y
l o w
g eari ng at
ab ou t
11 % , l o w er
th a n t he
pe r i o ds
dur i ng S A RS , t he
1998 A s i a n f i nanc i a l
c r i s i s
( A F C )
a nd G F C ; 2) s t rong ca s h po s i t i o ns , a t
ov e r 1. 8x
ca s h t o s hor t - term
d eb t
rati o s ; 3 )
l o w
n et
g eari ng s en s i t i v i ty
to
d ec li n es
i n
rev en u e
an d
i n v es t men t
prop ert i e s ’
( I P)
v al u es ;
an d
4 )
s o li d di v i de nd
r ec ord s .
L ook i ng
be y ond
t he
COV I D -19
ou tb reak ,
w e
ex p ec t
mo re
fl ex i b l e w o rki ng arran g emen ts
may
c as t
a
s h ad o w
o ve r l ong- term
o ffi ce
d eman d. Ho w ev er,
w e ex p ec t
no
i mp ac t
to
materi al i s e
s oon
g i v en
t h at
c orpo rate s
u s u a ll y
take
3-4
years
t o a dopt
s uc h c ha ng es
an d w e
th i nk th ere
i s
li m i t ed
n ew
o ffi ce
s upp l y
b efo re
2022 E.
S t r e ss
t e st an d
d o w n si d e
sc e na r i o
ana l y si s
I f
bu s i n e ss
ac ti v i ti es
do
no t
no rmal i s e
du ri ng
2020,
w e
ex p ec t
Cen tral
o ffi ce
ren t
to de c li ne
4 0% -5 0%
Y oY
i n 2020 a nd vaca nc i e s
t o r i s e
10p pt
c omp ared
w i th
du ri ng th e AF C.
O ur c o re
earn i ng s
an a l y s i s
i nd i c ates
a
rough l y
17 %
do w n s i d e
t o our b as e
c as e
i n 202 0E
a nd ne t
ge a r i ng t o m ode r a t e l y
i nc r ea s e
a bout
9ppt , t o 20% . A ppl y i ng a
t rough va l ua t i on f rom t he
A F C
a nd a ss um i ng l a ndl or ds
a nnou nc e
2 020E
D PS
c u t s , w e
es ti mate a
rough l y
55%
dow ns i de
r i s k t o our ba s e - c as e
v al u ati on. U p g r a d e
S w i r e ,
H ysan
an d
H K L
t o
N e u t r a l
o n
a tt r a ct i v e
v a l ua t i o n s,
d i v i d e n d s W e
upg rad e
S w i re,
Hy s an
an d
HK L
to
Neu tral
on
attrac ti ve
v al u ati on s
an d
s tro ng f in a n c ia l
a b il it ie s
t o
m a in t a i n
s tead y
d i v i d en d s .
W e
rei terate
our
Sel l
rat i ng
on
CR E I T du e
to
i ts
un att rac ti ve
v al u ati on an d fu rth er
D PU
do w n s i d e
ri s k i f
earn i ng s
d ec li n e.
F i g u r e
1 :
H o n g
K o n g
o ff i ce
l an d l o r d s"
v a l ua t i o ns
2020E
2020E
2021E
2021E
C u rre n t
Tr a d i n g
D i v
yi el d
e a r n i n g s
e a r n i n g s
e a r n i n g s
e a r n i n g s
RIC
N ew
O ld
PT
O l d
PT
p ri c e
U p s i d e
Tr a d i n g
d i v
yi el d
s p r ead
( N ew ;
( O ld ;
( N ew ;
( O ld ;
c o d e
C u rr
R a t i n g
R a t i n g
(L C )
(L C )
(L C )
( %)
NAV
d i s c
( F Y 20E)
( F Y 20E)
L C mn )
L C mn )
L C mn )
L C mn )
HK
L a nd HK L D. S I
US D
N e utra l
Sel l
3.9 5.2 3.9 0%
55%
5.7 %
5.0 %
968 1,043 988 1,143 Hy s a n 0014. H K
HK D
N e utra l
Sel l
24.0 25.4 25.0 - 4%
54%
5.8 %
5.1 %
2,185 2,416 2,308 2,387 C R E IT
2778. H K
HK D
Sel l
Sel l
4.0 4.4 4.5 - 11%
NA
5.2 %
4.6 %
1,247 1,337 1,206 1,291 S w i re
P rop 1972. H K
HK D
N e utra l
Sel l
20.5 21.1 19.6 4%
47%
4.5 %
3.9 %
6,958 7,793 7,493 8,007 W ei g h t ed avg
50%
5. 1 %
4. 4 %
N ot e : D a t a
a s
o f
3 Apr il
2020. So ur c e:
U B S
e st i mat e s , D at a st r eam .
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep are d b y
UB S
Sec u ri ti es
As i a
L i mited .
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N O N
P AGE
21 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i t h c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
re s earc h r ep o rts . As
a
res u l t,
i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on.
H ong
K on g
O ff i c e
UB S
R es ea rc h
TH E SI S
M A P
a
gui de
t o
our
t hink i ng
a nd
w ha t "s
w he r e
i n
t hi s
r e por t
OU R
T H ESI S
I N
PI C T U R ES M O ST
F AV O URED
L EAST
F AV O URED
Sw i r e,
H ysan ,
H o n g k o n g
L an d
C hamp i o n
R E I T
PI VO TAL
Q UESTI O NS
Q:
W ill
t h e
o u t b r e a k o f
C O V I D - 19
f u r t h e r
d amp e n
H o n g
K o n g ’ s
o ff i ce
d e man d ?
Y es . O v eral l / Cen tral
G rad e -A o ffi ce
d ec li n ed
6 %/ 9 %
Q o Q
i n Q 120 an d vaca n c i es
i n creas ed
fu rth e r, t o
6. 3% /4. 2%
a s
of
e nd- F eb ru ary
2020,
th e
s h arp es t
d ec li n e
s i n ce
th e
G F C.
Co up l ed
w i th
th e rec en t,
s h ar p
market
c o rrec ti on s ,
h i gh er
f und
red em p ti on
p res s u res
fo r
as s et
man ag e rs
an d po ten ti a l
g l ob al
rec es s i on ah ea d, w e
c u t
our 2020 Cen tra l
ren t
fo rec as t
fro m a
10- 15%
de c li ne
t o a 20-25 %
d ec li n e,
l arg el y
i n li n e
w i th
th e
SAR S
p eri od. mor e
Q:
W ill
o ff i ce
l an d l o r d s
b e
a b l e
t o
ma i n t a i n
t h e i r
d i v i d e n d
p o li ci e s
d e sp i t e
t h e
c ha ll e n g i n g r e n t a l
o u t l oo k ?
Y es . W e
b e li eve
Sw i re , H y s a n a nd HK L
w ill
b e
a bl e
t o m a in t a in
t h e i r st ea d y
a b solu t e
D PS , m a in l y
du e t o t he i r: 1)
s u st a i na bl y
l ow
ge a r i ng s ; 2)
st rong ca s h p os i t i o ns ; 3)
l ow
ge a r i ng se ns i t i v i t y
f rom r eve nu e a nd
I P
va lu e
de c li ne s;
a nd
4 )
s olid
di v i de nd
r ec or ds,
eve n
dur ing
t h e
G F C .
H o w eve r,
w e
ex pe c t Ch a m pion
RE IT
t o po st
a n 11 %
Y o Y
drop in
D P U
in
2020, s in ce
i t
t a rg e t s
a
95%
di v id e nd p ay ou t . mor e
Q:
W ill
mo re
fl e x i b l e
wo r k i n g
a rra n g e me n ts
l owe r
o ffi c e
d e man d
a fte r
th e
C O V I D - 19 o u t b r eak?
L es s
li kel y
i n
th e
n ear
term.
Wh en
COV ID -19
i s
c on tai n ed ,
w e
ex p ec t
mo re
c omp an i es
t o
rev i ew th ei r l eas i ng s tr ategi es
an d ad op t
fl ex i b l e
w or ki ng arran g emen ts . I n th e
l ong term,
w e
ex p ec t
d es k- s h ari ng to
i n creas e,
w h i c h c ou l d i mp ac t
o ffi ce
d eman d. Ho w ev er,
w e
ex p ec t
no n ear - term
materi a l c ha ng es
s i n ce
i t
u s u a ll y
takes
at
l eas t
3-4
years
fo r
l arg e
c orpo rates
to
ad op t
s u c h
s i gn i fi c an t c h an g es
an d no maj or n ew
o ffi ce
bu il d i ng s
w ill
li kel y
b e
c omp leted
b efo re
2022-2 3E . mor e
UB S
V I EW
W e
b el i eve
th e
ou tb reak
o f
COV I D -19
a nd
po ten ti al
g l ob al
rec es s i on
w ill
li kel y
w eaken
bu s i n es s c on fi d e n ce
fu rth er.
G i v en
th e
d ev el op men t
du ri ng
th e
SAR S
ou tb reak,
w e
fo rec as t
a
20-2 5% d ec li n e
f or
Cen tral
G rad e -A
o f fi ce
ren t
i n
2020
an d
ex p ec t
vac an c i es
to
s ur pa ss
8% ,
a
4 ppt
Y oY i n creas e.
I f
bu s i n es s
ac ti v i ti es
do no t
no rmal i s e
i n 2020, w e
ex p ec t
Cen tral ’ s
r en t
to
fal l
40-5 0%
Y oY an d vac an c i es
to
p i c k up b y
10pp t,
i n li n e
w i th
th e
i mp ac t
dur i ng th e
AF C.
Des p i te
th e
d eter i o rati ng bus i ne ss
out l ook, w e
be li eve
t he
of f i ce
l a n dl or ds
c ont i nue
t o ha ve
s t rong e nough f i nanc i a l s
t o pa y s t a bl e
di v i de n ds , due
t o t he i r l o w
ge a r i ngs , s t rong ca s h p os i t i ons
a nd s o li d d i v i de nd r ec ord s . EV I DENCE
1 )
O v eral l / Ce n t ral
G rad e -A
o ff i ce
ren t
de c li ne d
6% / 9%
Q o Q
i n
Q 120,
w h ile
vac an c i es
i n crease d fu rth er,
to
6.3 %/ 4.2 %
as
o f
en d- F eb ru ary ;
2 )
th e
Han g
Sen g
I nd ex
h as
a
h i gh
c o rrel a ti on
w i t h Cen tral
G rad e -A o ffi ce
ren t,
w i th
a
l ead i ng p e ri od o f
3-6 mo nt hs ; 3)
of f i ce
l a ndl or ds
r ...