农业商品季报：上半年需要下滑，下半年有反弹机会
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Industrial Metals Aggregate Precious Metals Energy (RHS) Agriculture & Livestock
Agricultural
Commodities Quarterly
Industrial
demand
slides
through
1H20,
but
2H20 offers
green
shoots
for
ags
rebound
Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff, agri commodities appear well positioned to embark upon a fundamentally led demand recovery in late 2Q20 and beyond. While the risk of China making Phase One purchases of US origin agri products continues to hang in the balance. The abrupt shift in OPEC+ oil supply strategy and concurrent
containment response to the Global COVID-19 Crisis are likely to sharply reduce the industrial use of agri commodities for biofuel production during the recession of 1H20. However, underlying food and feed consumption has remained robust, despite dislocations in some supply chains. But the equally abrupt and record strong recovery in global growth expected to commence in June suggests that a resurgence in activity and underlying industrial demand for agri commodities is approaching. The gradual reopening of economies and anticipated acceleration in economic activity through 2H20 and beyond drive quarterly global growth projections of +34% QOQ SAAR in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20. The unprecedented events of recent months have flipped the profile of our agri price forecasts. Prices are projected to reach the lows of the year through 2Q20 before recovering through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices and forward curves we look for a recovery across the complex commencing in 2Q20. Biofuel exposed markets lead projected price gains into year end. Price momentum across the agri complex trended negatively through Q1 2020, exacerbated by a drop in the ICE Brent z-score to a ~4-year low. Non-Commercial net length across US traded agri commodities is now at a historic seasonal short position, exceeded only by peak US-China Trade War levels of 2019. Positioning risks appear skewed to the upside in 2H20. Trade recommendations: Stay long CBOT Corn U0 – Z0 futures spread, stay long CBOT Corn July "20 upside calls, stay long the ICE #11 Sugar October ’20 14.5 – 16 USc/lb call spread, short the 13.25 USc/lb put, stay long the agri complex via an index.
Figure 2: The JP Morgan Agriculture & Livestock TR Index has collapsed –17.5% YTD albeit outperforming the aggregate, down -35% YTD. The 2H20 acceleration in growth and persistent contraction in world grain & oilseed inventories will drag ags out of the COVID-19 slump. Index
performance
from
2/1/2019
150
130
110
90
70
140 120 100 80 60 40 Global Commodities Research 01
May
2020
Global
Commodities
Research Tracey
Allen
(44-20)
7134-6732
tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
plc
Figure 1: Agri commodity price movements – active contract
CME
Lean
Hogs ICE
Robusta
Coffee ICE
#2
Cotton
ICE
Canola ICE
NY
Cocoa
CME
Feeer
Cattle CBOT
Soybean
Oil ICE
Cocoa
London Euronext
Maize CBOT
Soybeans ICE
#11
Raw
Sugar ICE
#5
White
Sugar CBOT
Soymeal JPMCCI
Agri
Index BCOM
Agri
Index Minneapolis
Wheat
MDE-Bursa
Palm
Oil CME
Live
Cattle CBOT
Corn Euronext
Wheat CBOT
Wheat
CBOT
Kansas
Wheat
ICE
Arabica
Coffee CME
Class
III
Milk
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30
WOW
YTD
Source:
Bloomberg,
J.P.
Morgan
Commodities Research,
29
April
2020
Source:
Bloomberg,
J.P.
Morgan
Commodities
Research,
29
April
See page 19 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com 19.2%
6.8%
3.1%
2.0%
1.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-1.8%
-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.8%
-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.2%
-4.3%
-4.5%
-6.3%
-13.2%
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Industrial demand slides through 1H20, but 2H20 offers green shoots for ags rebound Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff, agri commodities appear well positioned to embark upon a fundamentally led demand recovery in late 2Q20 and beyond. The J.P. Morgan Agriculture & Livestock Index has sold off -17.5% YTD, led lower by the historic collapse in oil demand and prices which has crushed biofuel use and competitiveness. Macro repercussions of the
sudden stop in activity have also been transmitted to the complex via foreign exchange markets (see Key Currency Views: Still no cure for USD strength, Chandan & Meggyesi et al 17 April). The collapse in the Brazilian real – the worst performing major currency through 2020 YTD (-36% YTD to USD/BRL 5.5) – has also taken its toll on USD denominated agri futures prices. Brazil’s enhanced export competiveness during the early stages of the Phase One US-China Trade Agreement has resulted in China purchasing sizeable tranches of Brazilian origin soybeans and proteins, raising questions around the durability of the agreement. Figure 3: With an unprecedented stoppage in global activity, our economists forecast a sharp decline in global GDP in 1H20 with an abrupt 2H20 rebound Real
GDP
-
%q/q,
saar
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20. Looking into 2021, growth should recover to the pre-COVID levels by January, and GDP is projected to rise to 6% YOY, up from -4.5% in 2020 (See Global Data Watch: Fetch the bolt cutters, I’ve been in here too long, Kasman et al, 24 April). Fundamental adjustments show persistent draws in exportable stocks Despite acute industrial demand destruction through April and May, our revised 2019/20 balances call for a continued contraction in exportable world inventories, with the exception of cotton (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). Aggregate world inventories tell a similar story, but are inflated by stocks locked out of export markets (Figure 4). Cotton, the most growth- and income-sensitive market of the complex, has suffered significant demand destruction (-9% QOQ) during the lockdown, and global inventories have expanded over +13% QOQ relative to our 2020 Outlook. Barring sugar, global stocks have increased across the agri complex relative to our 2020 Outlook, as the global downturn weighs on industrial demand. In the case of
sugar, production constraints in Thailand have driven a QOQ contraction in stocks and deepened our assessment of the world market deficit to -11.5 million tonnes (raw value). Figure 4: COVID-19 related demand destruction has prompted 2019/20 inventory assessments to rise, albeit decline YOY %
change
in
world
inventory
forecasts
Soybean Palm
oil Sugar Corn
Developed
markets
Emerging
Markets
Global
Source:
Global
Data
Watch,
J.P
Morgan
Commodities
Research,
as
of
24
April
2020
Wheat Cotton
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Robust food and feed consumption of agri commodities has driven relative outperformance of the aggregate Commodities Index which is down -35% YTD. Looking into 2H20 and beyond, we anticipate that food and feed demand will remain robust, while industrial demand will recover as economies open. Unprecedented stimulus and coordinated Central Bank action, along with energy price weakness, should support an abrupt and record strong recovery in global growth from June. This highlights that a resurgence in activity and underlying industrial demand for agri commodities is approaching. The gradual reopening of economies and anticipated activity acceleration drives quarterly global growth projections of +34% QOQ SAAR USDA
19/20
(f)
Y/Y
JPMC
19/20
(f)
Y/Y
JPMC
19/20
(f)
Q/Q
JPMC
20/21
(f)
Y/Y JPMC
20/21
(f)
Q/Q
Source:
USDA,
J.P.
Morgan
Commodities
Research
In 2020/21 world exportable inventories are projected to draw for yet another year, despite higher carry in stocks (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). This continues to drive a gradual tightening of world stocks-to-use ratios (Figure 5). Palm oil stocks are projected to draw aggressively, down -12% YOY, despite the relaxation in biodiesel blending programs across South East Asia. Dec
06
Dec
07
Dec
08
Dec
09
Dec
10
Dec
11
Dec
12
Dec
13
Dec
14
Dec
15
Dec
16
Dec
17
Dec
18
Dec
19
Dec
20
Dec
21
The seismic shift in the 2020/21 world sugar balance to a 2.8 million tonne surplus (from a -4.8 million tonne deficit in our February update) should drive a small stocks build – the only projected build across the complex, while stocks- to-use remains in check (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). Figure 5: On a world basis, our stocks-to-use projections continue to tighten in 2020/21, while sugar remains flat %
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Palm
Cotton
Sugar
Source:
USDA,
J.P.
Morgan
Commodities
Research
Price forecast profile flipped to 1H20 weakness followed by a demand led recovery in 2H20 Biofuel feedstocks ICE #11 Sugar, MDEB Palm Oil and CBOT Corn have led the losses across the agri complex in recent months, closely followed by dairy products and the livestock sector. Following COVID-19 induced softening of demand, and slow progress on China"s Phase One purchases of US agricultural products, prices are projected to reach
the lows of the year through 2Q20 before recovering through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices and forward curves we look for a recovery across the complex commencing in 2Q20 (see Agri Commodity Price Forecasts, Figure 13). Our ICE #11 Sugar price forecast has been revised down -16% (from February) to an average of 12.4 USc/lb through 2020 (from 14.8 USc/lb previously), and CBOT Corn prices are revised down -8% from our prior estimate to an average of 366 USc/bu through 2020. The persistent contraction of exportable wheat stocks through 2020/21 drives a 3% increase in our assessment of CBOT Wheat prices to an average of 550 USc/bu through 2020 –...
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