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农业商品季报:上半年需要下滑,下半年有反弹机会

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农业商品季报:上半年需要下滑,下半年有反弹机会

 

 Industrial Metals Aggregate Precious Metals Energy (RHS) Agriculture & Livestock

 Agricultural

 Commodities Quarterly

 Industrial

 demand

 slides

 through

 1H20,

 but

 2H20 offers

 green

 shoots

 for

 ags

 rebound

   Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff, agri commodities appear well positioned to embark upon a fundamentally led demand recovery in late 2Q20 and beyond. While the risk of China making Phase One purchases of US origin agri products continues to hang in the balance.  The abrupt shift in OPEC+ oil supply strategy and concurrent

 containment response to the Global COVID-19 Crisis are likely to sharply reduce the industrial use of agri commodities for biofuel production during the recession of 1H20. However, underlying food and feed consumption has remained robust, despite dislocations in some supply chains.  But the equally abrupt and record strong recovery in global growth expected to commence in June suggests that a resurgence in activity and underlying industrial demand for agri commodities is approaching. The gradual reopening of economies and anticipated acceleration in economic activity through 2H20 and beyond drive quarterly global growth projections of +34% QOQ SAAR in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20.  The unprecedented events of recent months have flipped the profile of our agri price forecasts. Prices are projected to reach the lows of the year through 2Q20 before recovering through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices and forward curves we look for a recovery across the complex commencing in 2Q20. Biofuel exposed markets lead projected price gains into year end.  Price momentum across the agri complex trended negatively through Q1 2020, exacerbated by a drop in the ICE Brent z-score to a ~4-year low. Non-Commercial net length across US traded agri commodities is now at a historic seasonal short position, exceeded only by peak US-China Trade War levels of 2019. Positioning risks appear skewed to the upside in 2H20.  Trade recommendations: Stay long CBOT Corn U0 – Z0 futures spread, stay long CBOT Corn July "20 upside calls, stay long the ICE #11 Sugar October ’20 14.5 – 16 USc/lb call spread, short the 13.25 USc/lb put, stay long the agri complex via an index.

 Figure 2: The JP Morgan Agriculture & Livestock TR Index has collapsed –17.5% YTD albeit outperforming the aggregate, down -35% YTD. The 2H20 acceleration in growth and persistent contraction in world grain & oilseed inventories will drag ags out of the COVID-19 slump. Index

 performance

 from

 2/1/2019

  150

 130

 110

 90

 70

 140 120 100 80 60 40 Global Commodities Research 01

 May

 2020

 Global

 Commodities

 Research Tracey

 Allen

 (44-20)

 7134-6732

 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

 J.P.

 Morgan

 Securities

 plc

  Figure 1: Agri commodity price movements – active contract

 CME

 Lean

 Hogs ICE

 Robusta

 Coffee ICE

 #2

 Cotton

 ICE

 Canola ICE

 NY

 Cocoa

 CME

 Feeer

 Cattle CBOT

 Soybean

 Oil ICE

 Cocoa

 London Euronext

 Maize CBOT

 Soybeans ICE

 #11

 Raw

 Sugar ICE

 #5

 White

 Sugar CBOT

 Soymeal JPMCCI

 Agri

 Index BCOM

 Agri

 Index Minneapolis

 Wheat

 MDE-Bursa

 Palm

 Oil CME

 Live

 Cattle CBOT

 Corn Euronext

 Wheat CBOT

 Wheat

 CBOT

 Kansas

 Wheat

 ICE

 Arabica

 Coffee CME

 Class

 III

 Milk

 -40%

  -30%

  -20%

  -10%

 0%

 10%

 20%

  30

 WOW

 YTD

  Source:

 Bloomberg,

 J.P.

 Morgan

 Commodities Research,

 29

 April

 2020

 Source:

 Bloomberg,

 J.P.

 Morgan

 Commodities

 Research,

 29

 April

 See page 19 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

  www.jpmorganmarkets.com 19.2%

 6.8%

  3.1%

  2.0%

  1.7%

  0.9%

  0.8%

  0.6%

 -0.2%

  -0.4%

  -0.7%

  -1.0%

  -1.8%

  -2.2%

  -2.3%

  -2.3%

  -2.8%

  -3.8%

  -4.1%

  -4.2%

  -4.3%

  -4.5%

  -6.3%

 -13.2%

 Jan-19

 Feb-19

 Mar-19

 Apr-19

 May-19

 Jun-19

 Jul-19

 Aug-19

 Sep-19

 Oct-19

 Nov-19

 Dec-19

 Jan-20

 Feb-20

  Mar-20

 Apr-20

 Industrial demand slides through 1H20, but 2H20 offers green shoots for ags rebound Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff, agri commodities appear well positioned to embark upon a fundamentally led demand recovery in late 2Q20 and beyond. The J.P. Morgan Agriculture & Livestock Index has sold off -17.5% YTD, led lower by the historic collapse in oil demand and prices which has crushed biofuel use and competitiveness. Macro repercussions of the

 sudden stop in activity have also been transmitted to the complex via foreign exchange markets (see Key Currency Views: Still no cure for USD strength, Chandan & Meggyesi et al 17 April). The collapse in the Brazilian real – the worst performing major currency through 2020 YTD (-36% YTD to USD/BRL 5.5) – has also taken its toll on USD denominated agri futures prices. Brazil’s enhanced export competiveness during the early stages of the Phase One US-China Trade Agreement has resulted in China purchasing sizeable tranches of Brazilian origin soybeans and proteins, raising questions around the durability of the agreement. Figure 3: With an unprecedented stoppage in global activity, our economists forecast a sharp decline in global GDP in 1H20 with an abrupt 2H20 rebound Real

 GDP

 -

 %q/q,

 saar

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

 0

 -10

 -20

 -30

 -40

 -50

  in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20. Looking into 2021, growth should recover to the pre-COVID levels by January, and GDP is projected to rise to 6% YOY, up from -4.5% in 2020 (See Global Data Watch: Fetch the bolt cutters, I’ve been in here too long, Kasman et al, 24 April). Fundamental adjustments show persistent draws in exportable stocks Despite acute industrial demand destruction through April and May, our revised 2019/20 balances call for a continued contraction in exportable world inventories, with the exception of cotton (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). Aggregate world inventories tell a similar story, but are inflated by stocks locked out of export markets (Figure 4). Cotton, the most growth- and income-sensitive market of the complex, has suffered significant demand destruction (-9% QOQ) during the lockdown, and global inventories have expanded over +13% QOQ relative to our 2020 Outlook. Barring sugar, global stocks have increased across the agri complex relative to our 2020 Outlook, as the global downturn weighs on industrial demand. In the case of

 sugar, production constraints in Thailand have driven a QOQ contraction in stocks and deepened our assessment of the world market deficit to -11.5 million tonnes (raw value). Figure 4: COVID-19 related demand destruction has prompted 2019/20 inventory assessments to rise, albeit decline YOY %

 change

 in

 world

 inventory

 forecasts

  Soybean Palm

 oil Sugar Corn

  Developed

 markets

 Emerging

 Markets

 Global

  Source:

 Global

 Data

 Watch,

 J.P

 Morgan

 Commodities

 Research,

 as

 of

 24

 April

 2020

 Wheat Cotton

 -40%

 -30%

 -20%

 -10%

 0%

 10%

 20%

 Robust food and feed consumption of agri commodities has driven relative outperformance of the aggregate Commodities Index which is down -35% YTD. Looking into 2H20 and beyond, we anticipate that food and feed demand will remain robust, while industrial demand will recover as economies open. Unprecedented stimulus and coordinated Central Bank action, along with energy price weakness, should support an abrupt and record strong recovery in global growth from June. This highlights that a resurgence in activity and underlying industrial demand for agri commodities is approaching. The gradual reopening of economies and anticipated activity acceleration drives quarterly global growth projections of +34% QOQ SAAR USDA

 19/20

 (f)

 Y/Y

 JPMC

 19/20

 (f)

 Y/Y

 JPMC

 19/20

 (f)

 Q/Q

 JPMC

 20/21

 (f)

 Y/Y JPMC

 20/21

 (f)

 Q/Q

 Source:

 USDA,

 J.P.

 Morgan

 Commodities

 Research

  In 2020/21 world exportable inventories are projected to draw for yet another year, despite higher carry in stocks (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). This continues to drive a gradual tightening of world stocks-to-use ratios (Figure 5). Palm oil stocks are projected to draw aggressively, down -12% YOY, despite the relaxation in biodiesel blending programs across South East Asia. Dec

 06

 Dec

 07

 Dec

 08

 Dec

 09

 Dec

 10

 Dec

 11

 Dec

 12

 Dec

 13

 Dec

 14

 Dec

 15

 Dec

 16

 Dec

 17

 Dec

 18

 Dec

 19

 Dec

 20

 Dec

 21

 The seismic shift in the 2020/21 world sugar balance to a 2.8 million tonne surplus (from a -4.8 million tonne deficit in our February update) should drive a small stocks build – the only projected build across the complex, while stocks- to-use remains in check (see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April). Figure 5: On a world basis, our stocks-to-use projections continue to tighten in 2020/21, while sugar remains flat %

 80%

 70%

 60%

 50%

 40%

 30%

 20%

 10%

 0%

  Wheat

 Corn

 Soybean

 Palm

 Cotton

 Sugar

 Source:

 USDA,

 J.P.

 Morgan

 Commodities

 Research

  Price forecast profile flipped to 1H20 weakness followed by a demand led recovery in 2H20 Biofuel feedstocks ICE #11 Sugar, MDEB Palm Oil and CBOT Corn have led the losses across the agri complex in recent months, closely followed by dairy products and the livestock sector. Following COVID-19 induced softening of demand, and slow progress on China"s Phase One purchases of US agricultural products, prices are projected to reach

 the lows of the year through 2Q20 before recovering through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices and forward curves we look for a recovery across the complex commencing in 2Q20 (see Agri Commodity Price Forecasts, Figure 13). Our ICE #11 Sugar price forecast has been revised down -16% (from February) to an average of 12.4 USc/lb through 2020 (from 14.8 USc/lb previously), and CBOT Corn prices are revised down -8% from our prior estimate to an average of 366 USc/bu through 2020. The persistent contraction of exportable wheat stocks through 2020/21 drives a 3% increase in our assessment of CBOT Wheat prices to an average of 550 USc/bu through 2020 –...

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