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2020年及以后大趋势助您制定战略

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2020年及以后大趋势助您制定战略

 

  CONTEN T S

 U sing

 megatr ends

 t o

 shape

 y our

 s tr ategy

  4

 Primar y

 f or c e s

  12

 P o w ering

 human

 augmen t ation

  14

 B e y ond

 glob aliz ation

  16

 Gen

 Z

 rising

  18

 Exponen tial

 climat e

 imp act s

  22

 Megatr ends

  26

 Decarboniz ation

  28

 T echonomic

 c old

 w ar

  34

 B eha vioral

 ec onom y

  40

 S yn the tic

 media

  46

 F utur e

 o f

 thinking

  52

 W ork

 and

 lif e

 unbounded

  58

 Microbiome s

  64

 S yn the tic

 biology

  70

 F ut ur e

 w orking

 w orlds

  78

 Afric a’ s

 ne w

 c en t ury

  80

 Ne w

 ec onomic

 me tric s

  86

 Mending

 s ocial

 f abric

  92

 Endno t e s

  98

 Ackno wledgmen t s

  100

 Y our

 E Y

 Megatr ends

 c on t act s

  104

  Megatrends

 2020

 and

 be y ond

  |

  e y . c om/ megatrends

  e y . c om/ megatrends

  |

  Megatrends

 2020

 and

 be y ond

  1

 USING ME G A TREN D S T O

 S H A PE

 Y O U R S TR A TE G Y

  2

 Megatrends

 2020

 and

 be y ond

  |

  e y . c om/ megatrends

  e y . c om/ megatrends

  |

  Megatrends

 2020

 and

 be y ond

  3

 Imagine

 r ebuilding

 a

 F ormula

 One

 c ar

 no t

 in

 pit

 lane ,

 but

 as

 y ou hurtle

 ar ound

 the

 track.

 T hat ’ s

 the

 challenge

 busine ss

 le ader s

 f ac e in

 this

 momen t

 o f

 disruption.

 T he

 r ec en t

 glob al

 p andemic

 and

 it s f allout

 on

 busine ss e s

 has

 been

 the

 gr e at e s t

 glob al

 disrup tion

 in modern

 histor y .

 It

 is

 permanen tly

 changing

 the

 futur e

 o f

 s ocie t y , w ork,

 geopolitic s

 and

 busine ss e s .

 If

 c onducting

 futur e-b ack

 planning b as ed

 on

 megatr ends

 and

 s c enario s

 w as

 impor t an t

 be f or e ,

 it

 is

 no w

 critical.

 T his

 w a y

 o f

 thinking

 and

 r e s e tting

 f or

 the

 futur e

 will de t ermine

 which

 c omp anie s

 e xit

 the

 p andemic

 cy cle

 in

 a

 r enais s anc e and

 which

 will

 bec ome

 irr ele v an t .

  L e adership

 t e ams

 ha v e

 alw a y s

 f ound

 it

 har d

 t o

 plan

 using

 megatrends

 and

 s c enario s

 de spit e

 the

 be s t

 in t en tions . W h y ?

 B ecaus e

 futur e

 disrup tion

 r ais e s

 challenge s

 and que s tions

 with

 no

 e asy

 ans w er s:

 •

 Fir s t ,

 disrup tion

 c ome s

 fr om

 f ar

 afield.

 It

 c an

 emer ge fr om

 unc on tr ollable

 wildfire s ,

 geopolitical

 po w er

 shift s or

 a

 global

 p andemic

 that

 shut s

 do wn

 s ociet y

 and c ommer c e .

 S ome

 c omp anie s ,

 labeled

 “disruptor s , ” s t ar t

 t o

 build

 busine ss e s

 that

 will

 thriv e

 within

 the disruptiv e

 s c enario s

 and

 oper at e

 on

 a

 dif f er en t

 s e t

 o f v alue

 driver s .

 Y e t ,

 inc umben t

 mark e t

 le ader s

 o ft en

 fi nd

 it

 har d

 t o

 e v en

 imagine

 the

 po t en tial

 imp act

 o f

 s c enario s that

 ma y

 disrupt

 an

 en tir e

 indus try ,

 c ust omer

 needs

 or c omp an y

 r ele v anc e .

 Ho w

 do

 y ou

 mak e

 sur e

 y ou

 don ’t mis s

 the

 ne xt

 disrup tiv e

 shift ?

 Ho w

 do

 y ou

 iden tif y the

 uncer t ain tie s

 or

 tr ends

 y ou’ r e

 afr aid

 t o

 c on fr on t ?

 •

 S ec ond,

 disrupting

 y our s elf

 r equire s

 placing

 long t erm

 be t s

 on

 un t e s t ed

 appr o ache s

 and

 models .

 At the

 s ame

 time ,

 disrup tion

 r e shape s

 the

 c ompe titiv e

 lands c ape ,

 cr e ating

 tr emendous

 uncertaint y

 about

 the as sump tions

 and

 projections

 underlying

 tho s e

 long

 t erm be t s .

 B alancing

 the s e

 t w o

 f or c e s

 is

 no t

 impo s sible

 —

 it just

 needs

 the

 righ t

 inno v ation

 appr o ach

 Ho w

 do

 y ou op timally

 in v e s t

 s c ar c e

 r e s our c e s

 in

 a

 multi-horiz on por t f olio ,

 giv en

 this

 uncer t ain t y?

 Ho w

 do

 y ou

 iden tif y which

 models

 and

 appr o ach

 will

 suc c eed?

  •

 T hird,

 disrup tion

 r equire s

 y ou

 t o

 make

 in v e s tmen t s that

 migh t

 ensur e

 y our

 r ele v anc e

 and

 surviv al

 in

 the long

 term,

 but

 c ould

 hurt

 financial

 performanc e

 in

 the short

 run

 —

 the

 fundamen tal

 t ension

 underpinning

 the

 inno v ator ’ s

 dilemma.

 Ho w

 do

 y ou

 in v e s t

 f or

 long

 t erm

 disrup tion

 while

 c on tinuing

 t o

 win

 in

 the

 shor t run ?

 Ho w

 do

 y ou

 s olv e

 the

 no w ,

 e xplor e

 the

 ne xt

 and imagine

 the

 be y ond?

 T he s e

 challenge s

 ar e

 thorn y ,

 but

 no t

 insurmoun t able

 if y ou

 tak e

 a

 s tructur ed

 and

 deliber at e

 appr o ach.

 W e

 ha v e f ound

 that

 a

 futur e-b ack

 s tr at egy

 de v elopmen t

 proc e ss w ork s

 be s t :

 using

 megatrends

 as

 a

 k e y

 analytical

 t ool

 t o

 en vision

 wher e

 y ou’ll

 be

 in

 the

 futur e ,

 then

 w orking b ack w ar d

 t o

 cr aft

 s tr ategie s

 f or

 t oda y .

 T his

 method fl ip s

 the

 s cript

 on

 the

 s tandar d

 appr o ach

 t o

 de v eloping projections ,

 plans

 and

 s tr at egy ,

 which

 us e s

 the

 c urr en t s tat e

 as

 the

 s t ar ting

 poin t .

 It

 is

 p artic ularly

 suit ed

 t o disruption,

 which

 cr e at e s

 en tirely

 ne w mark e t s

 and

 ec o s y s t ems

 that

 make

 e xtr apolations

 b as ed

 on

 historical tr ends

 me aningle ss .

 F ut ur e-b ack

 thinking

 als o

 br o adens the

 per spectiv e

 o f

 e x ecutiv e s ,

 helping

 t o

 c on fr on t

 the r e alit y

 o f

 po t en tial

 futur e s

 wher e

 the

 c omp an y

 c ould bec ome

 irr ele v ant

 or

 the

 indus try

 it s elf

 t o t ally

 r ede fi ned.

  Megatr ends

 and

 fut ur e-b ack

 s tr ategy

 A

 major

 s tr at egic

 risk

 c omp anie s

 f ac e

 is

 de v eloping

 plans

 that

 as sume

 t oda y’ s

 indus try

 s tructur e ,

 c ompe titor s and

 pr o fit

 pools

 will

 per sis t

 through

 the

 5-to-10- y e ar planning

 horizon.

 Our

 megatrends

 help

 challenge

 the s e

 as sump tions .

 T he y

 expo s e

 t e ams

 t o

 tr ends

 and

 f or c e s

 f ar out side

 their

 usual

 s c ope

 o f

 analy sis ,

 r educing

 the

 risk

 o f “mis sing

 the

 ne xt

 big

 thing.”

 Her e ’ s

 ho w w e

 r ec ommend

 using

 this

 r epor t :

 S t ar t

 b y

 using

 the

 megatrends

 t o

 en vision

 multiple

 futur e s c enario s ,

 unencumber ed

 b y

 the

 p as t

 and

 uncons tr ained b y

 the

 pr e s en t .

 C ustomiz e

 the

 lis t

 o f

 megatrends

 b as ed on

 f act or s

 such

 as

 y our

 s ector

 and

 channel

 mix.

 Our fr ame w ork

 generat e s

 a

 po t en tially

 c oun tle ss

 c ollection

 o f

 megatrends ,

 sinc e

 the

 e v olution

 o f

 primary

 f or c e s c on tinuously

 cr e at e s

 ne w one s .

 T his

 help s

 y ou

 t o

 iden tif y o ther

 megatrends

 b as ed

 on

 the

 primary

 f or c e s .

 De sign thinking

 and

 de sign-b as ed

 inno v ation

 ar e

 critic al

 t o

 blend cr e ativit y

 and

 analy sis

 in

 this

 proc e ss .

 Envir onmen t s

 built on

 the s e

 principle s ,

 such

 as

 E Y

 w a v e sp ac e™

 f acilitie s , allo w e x ecutiv e s

 t o

 e xperienc e

 the

 ar t

 o f

 the

 po s sible

 in

 an immer siv e

 w a y .

 W ith

 y our

 futur e

 s c enario s

 as

 a

 s t ar ting

 poin t ,

 cr e at e a

 multi-horiz on

 s tr at egic

 map

 that

 bridge s

 fr om

 the futur e

 b ack

 t o

 t oda y .

 T he

 map

 t arge t s

 a

 cle ar

 purpo s e

 and

 vision

 o f

 the

 futur e

 with

 a

 por t f olio

 o f

 initiativ e s

 that pr o vide

 immediate

 imp act

 —

 as

 w ell

 as

 the

 op tionalit y

 t o

 t e s t

 and

 mo v e

 in t o

 emer ging

 or

 futur e

 mark e t s

 o v er time .

 Y ou’ll

 als o

 w ant

 t o

 as s e ss

 whe ther

 y ou

 ha v e

 the c apabilitie s

 needed

 f or

 futur e

 busine ss

 models .

 T his

 s t ar t s

 b y

 e x amining

 the

 c or e

 busine ss

 model

 and

 busine ss pr actic e s ,

 and

 e xpanding

 t o

 y our

 e xt ernal

 ec o s y s t em

 o f

 p ar tner s

 and

 o ther

 s tak eholder s .

 T his

 c an

 include analy sis

 t o

 de t ermine

 which

 op tions

 t o

 prioritiz e ,

 in f orm in v e s tmen t

 decisions

 and

 align

 tr ans f ormation

 e ff ort s .

 W hat

 about

 the

 t ension

 be t w een

 long

 t erm

 in v e s tmen t s and

 short

 t erm

 e arnings

 pr e s sur e ?

 T o

 addre ss

 this , de v elop

 a

 t w o-speed

 model,

 looking

 t o

 cr e at e

 immediate v alue

 e v en

 as

 y ou

 iden tif y

 and

 prioritiz e

 initiativ e s

 that la y

 the

 f oundation

 f or

 longer -term

 s tr ategie s .

 In

 a

 r apidly

 changing

 w orld,

 de v eloping

 s tr at egic

 op tions is

 no t

 a

 one-o ff

 proc e ss .

 It

 should

 be

 p ar t

 o f

 an

 iterativ e journe y

 o f

 c on tinual

 monit oring,

 experimen tation, e v aluation,

 e x ec ution

 and

 le arning.

 Her e

 again,

 the

 E Y Megatr ends

 fr ame w ork

 c an

 help .

 It

 distinguishe s

 be t w een dif f er en t

 type s

 o f

 f or c e s ,

 allowing

 y ou

 t o

 prioritiz e

 tho s e that

 ar e

 r elatively

 ne ar -t erm,

 while

 monit oring

 o ther s that

 ar e

 further

 out

 ( such

 as

 w e ak

 f or c e s).

 T his

 enable s y ou

 t o

 in v e s t

 r e s our c e s

 more

 e f ficien tly ,

 while

 k eeping

 a w atchful

 e y e

 on

 tr ends

 that

 migh t

 r equire

 in v e s tmen t

 at

 a futur e

 date .

 e y . c om/ megatrends

  |

  Megatrends

 2020

 and

 be y ond

  5

  T he

 E Y

 Megatr ends

 fr ame w ork

 T he

 E Y

 Megatr ends

 fr ame w ork

 iden tifi e s

 f our

 type s

 o f

 f or c e s:

  Primary

 f or c e s

 •

 Primary

 f or c e s

 ar e

 the

 r oo t

 c aus e s

 o f

 disrup tion: t echnology ,

 glob aliz ation,

 demogr aphic s

 and en vir onmen t .

 •

 T he s e

 f or c e s

 ar en ’t

 ne w .

 B ut

 the y

 e v olv e

 in

 w a v e s; e ach

 ne w w a v e

 is

 disruptiv e

 in

 dif f er en t

 w a y s .

 F or instanc e ,

 w e

 ha v e

 s een

 s e v eral

 w a v e s

 o f

 technology in

 r ec en t

 y e ar s ,

 including

 per s onal

 c omput er s , mobile ,

 s ocial

 and

 In ternet

 o f

 T hings .

 •

 In

 this

 r epor t ,

 w e

 highlight

 f our

 e x ample s

 o f

 the

 lat e s t

 w a v e s

 oc c urring

 in

 the

 primary

 f or c e s:

 •

 P o w ering

 human

 augmen t ation

 ( technology )

 •

 B e y ond

 glob aliz ation

 ( glob aliz ation )

 •

 Gen

 Z

 rising

 ( demogr aphic s )

 •

 Exponen tial

 climat e

 imp act s

 ( en vir onmen t )

  Megatr ends

 •

 T he

 in teraction

 be t w een

 the

 w a v e s

 o f

 primary

 f or c e s

 cr e at e s

 ne w megatrends .

 •

 Our

 lis t

 o f

 megatrends...

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