2020年及以后大趋势助您制定战略
下面是小编为大家整理的2020年及以后大趋势助您制定战略,供大家参考。
CONTEN T S
U sing
megatr ends
t o
shape
y our
s tr ategy
4
Primar y
f or c e s
12
P o w ering
human
augmen t ation
14
B e y ond
glob aliz ation
16
Gen
Z
rising
18
Exponen tial
climat e
imp act s
22
Megatr ends
26
Decarboniz ation
28
T echonomic
c old
w ar
34
B eha vioral
ec onom y
40
S yn the tic
media
46
F utur e
o f
thinking
52
W ork
and
lif e
unbounded
58
Microbiome s
64
S yn the tic
biology
70
F ut ur e
w orking
w orlds
78
Afric a’ s
ne w
c en t ury
80
Ne w
ec onomic
me tric s
86
Mending
s ocial
f abric
92
Endno t e s
98
Ackno wledgmen t s
100
Y our
E Y
Megatr ends
c on t act s
104
Megatrends
2020
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Megatrends
2020
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1
USING ME G A TREN D S T O
S H A PE
Y O U R S TR A TE G Y
2
Megatrends
2020
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Megatrends
2020
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3
Imagine
r ebuilding
a
F ormula
One
c ar
no t
in
pit
lane ,
but
as
y ou hurtle
ar ound
the
track.
T hat ’ s
the
challenge
busine ss
le ader s
f ac e in
this
momen t
o f
disruption.
T he
r ec en t
glob al
p andemic
and
it s f allout
on
busine ss e s
has
been
the
gr e at e s t
glob al
disrup tion
in modern
histor y .
It
is
permanen tly
changing
the
futur e
o f
s ocie t y , w ork,
geopolitic s
and
busine ss e s .
If
c onducting
futur e-b ack
planning b as ed
on
megatr ends
and
s c enario s
w as
impor t an t
be f or e ,
it
is
no w
critical.
T his
w a y
o f
thinking
and
r e s e tting
f or
the
futur e
will de t ermine
which
c omp anie s
e xit
the
p andemic
cy cle
in
a
r enais s anc e and
which
will
bec ome
irr ele v an t .
L e adership
t e ams
ha v e
alw a y s
f ound
it
har d
t o
plan
using
megatrends
and
s c enario s
de spit e
the
be s t
in t en tions . W h y ?
B ecaus e
futur e
disrup tion
r ais e s
challenge s
and que s tions
with
no
e asy
ans w er s:
•
Fir s t ,
disrup tion
c ome s
fr om
f ar
afield.
It
c an
emer ge fr om
unc on tr ollable
wildfire s ,
geopolitical
po w er
shift s or
a
global
p andemic
that
shut s
do wn
s ociet y
and c ommer c e .
S ome
c omp anie s ,
labeled
“disruptor s , ” s t ar t
t o
build
busine ss e s
that
will
thriv e
within
the disruptiv e
s c enario s
and
oper at e
on
a
dif f er en t
s e t
o f v alue
driver s .
Y e t ,
inc umben t
mark e t
le ader s
o ft en
fi nd
it
har d
t o
e v en
imagine
the
po t en tial
imp act
o f
s c enario s that
ma y
disrupt
an
en tir e
indus try ,
c ust omer
needs
or c omp an y
r ele v anc e .
Ho w
do
y ou
mak e
sur e
y ou
don ’t mis s
the
ne xt
disrup tiv e
shift ?
Ho w
do
y ou
iden tif y the
uncer t ain tie s
or
tr ends
y ou’ r e
afr aid
t o
c on fr on t ?
•
S ec ond,
disrupting
y our s elf
r equire s
placing
long t erm
be t s
on
un t e s t ed
appr o ache s
and
models .
At the
s ame
time ,
disrup tion
r e shape s
the
c ompe titiv e
lands c ape ,
cr e ating
tr emendous
uncertaint y
about
the as sump tions
and
projections
underlying
tho s e
long
t erm be t s .
B alancing
the s e
t w o
f or c e s
is
no t
impo s sible
—
it just
needs
the
righ t
inno v ation
appr o ach
Ho w
do
y ou op timally
in v e s t
s c ar c e
r e s our c e s
in
a
multi-horiz on por t f olio ,
giv en
this
uncer t ain t y?
Ho w
do
y ou
iden tif y which
models
and
appr o ach
will
suc c eed?
•
T hird,
disrup tion
r equire s
y ou
t o
make
in v e s tmen t s that
migh t
ensur e
y our
r ele v anc e
and
surviv al
in
the long
term,
but
c ould
hurt
financial
performanc e
in
the short
run
—
the
fundamen tal
t ension
underpinning
the
inno v ator ’ s
dilemma.
Ho w
do
y ou
in v e s t
f or
long
t erm
disrup tion
while
c on tinuing
t o
win
in
the
shor t run ?
Ho w
do
y ou
s olv e
the
no w ,
e xplor e
the
ne xt
and imagine
the
be y ond?
T he s e
challenge s
ar e
thorn y ,
but
no t
insurmoun t able
if y ou
tak e
a
s tructur ed
and
deliber at e
appr o ach.
W e
ha v e f ound
that
a
futur e-b ack
s tr at egy
de v elopmen t
proc e ss w ork s
be s t :
using
megatrends
as
a
k e y
analytical
t ool
t o
en vision
wher e
y ou’ll
be
in
the
futur e ,
then
w orking b ack w ar d
t o
cr aft
s tr ategie s
f or
t oda y .
T his
method fl ip s
the
s cript
on
the
s tandar d
appr o ach
t o
de v eloping projections ,
plans
and
s tr at egy ,
which
us e s
the
c urr en t s tat e
as
the
s t ar ting
poin t .
It
is
p artic ularly
suit ed
t o disruption,
which
cr e at e s
en tirely
ne w mark e t s
and
ec o s y s t ems
that
make
e xtr apolations
b as ed
on
historical tr ends
me aningle ss .
F ut ur e-b ack
thinking
als o
br o adens the
per spectiv e
o f
e x ecutiv e s ,
helping
t o
c on fr on t
the r e alit y
o f
po t en tial
futur e s
wher e
the
c omp an y
c ould bec ome
irr ele v ant
or
the
indus try
it s elf
t o t ally
r ede fi ned.
Megatr ends
and
fut ur e-b ack
s tr ategy
A
major
s tr at egic
risk
c omp anie s
f ac e
is
de v eloping
plans
that
as sume
t oda y’ s
indus try
s tructur e ,
c ompe titor s and
pr o fit
pools
will
per sis t
through
the
5-to-10- y e ar planning
horizon.
Our
megatrends
help
challenge
the s e
as sump tions .
T he y
expo s e
t e ams
t o
tr ends
and
f or c e s
f ar out side
their
usual
s c ope
o f
analy sis ,
r educing
the
risk
o f “mis sing
the
ne xt
big
thing.”
Her e ’ s
ho w w e
r ec ommend
using
this
r epor t :
S t ar t
b y
using
the
megatrends
t o
en vision
multiple
futur e s c enario s ,
unencumber ed
b y
the
p as t
and
uncons tr ained b y
the
pr e s en t .
C ustomiz e
the
lis t
o f
megatrends
b as ed on
f act or s
such
as
y our
s ector
and
channel
mix.
Our fr ame w ork
generat e s
a
po t en tially
c oun tle ss
c ollection
o f
megatrends ,
sinc e
the
e v olution
o f
primary
f or c e s c on tinuously
cr e at e s
ne w one s .
T his
help s
y ou
t o
iden tif y o ther
megatrends
b as ed
on
the
primary
f or c e s .
De sign thinking
and
de sign-b as ed
inno v ation
ar e
critic al
t o
blend cr e ativit y
and
analy sis
in
this
proc e ss .
Envir onmen t s
built on
the s e
principle s ,
such
as
E Y
w a v e sp ac e™
f acilitie s , allo w e x ecutiv e s
t o
e xperienc e
the
ar t
o f
the
po s sible
in
an immer siv e
w a y .
W ith
y our
futur e
s c enario s
as
a
s t ar ting
poin t ,
cr e at e a
multi-horiz on
s tr at egic
map
that
bridge s
fr om
the futur e
b ack
t o
t oda y .
T he
map
t arge t s
a
cle ar
purpo s e
and
vision
o f
the
futur e
with
a
por t f olio
o f
initiativ e s
that pr o vide
immediate
imp act
—
as
w ell
as
the
op tionalit y
t o
t e s t
and
mo v e
in t o
emer ging
or
futur e
mark e t s
o v er time .
Y ou’ll
als o
w ant
t o
as s e ss
whe ther
y ou
ha v e
the c apabilitie s
needed
f or
futur e
busine ss
models .
T his
s t ar t s
b y
e x amining
the
c or e
busine ss
model
and
busine ss pr actic e s ,
and
e xpanding
t o
y our
e xt ernal
ec o s y s t em
o f
p ar tner s
and
o ther
s tak eholder s .
T his
c an
include analy sis
t o
de t ermine
which
op tions
t o
prioritiz e ,
in f orm in v e s tmen t
decisions
and
align
tr ans f ormation
e ff ort s .
W hat
about
the
t ension
be t w een
long
t erm
in v e s tmen t s and
short
t erm
e arnings
pr e s sur e ?
T o
addre ss
this , de v elop
a
t w o-speed
model,
looking
t o
cr e at e
immediate v alue
e v en
as
y ou
iden tif y
and
prioritiz e
initiativ e s
that la y
the
f oundation
f or
longer -term
s tr ategie s .
In
a
r apidly
changing
w orld,
de v eloping
s tr at egic
op tions is
no t
a
one-o ff
proc e ss .
It
should
be
p ar t
o f
an
iterativ e journe y
o f
c on tinual
monit oring,
experimen tation, e v aluation,
e x ec ution
and
le arning.
Her e
again,
the
E Y Megatr ends
fr ame w ork
c an
help .
It
distinguishe s
be t w een dif f er en t
type s
o f
f or c e s ,
allowing
y ou
t o
prioritiz e
tho s e that
ar e
r elatively
ne ar -t erm,
while
monit oring
o ther s that
ar e
further
out
( such
as
w e ak
f or c e s).
T his
enable s y ou
t o
in v e s t
r e s our c e s
more
e f ficien tly ,
while
k eeping
a w atchful
e y e
on
tr ends
that
migh t
r equire
in v e s tmen t
at
a futur e
date .
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Megatrends
2020
and
be y ond
5
T he
E Y
Megatr ends
fr ame w ork
T he
E Y
Megatr ends
fr ame w ork
iden tifi e s
f our
type s
o f
f or c e s:
Primary
f or c e s
•
Primary
f or c e s
ar e
the
r oo t
c aus e s
o f
disrup tion: t echnology ,
glob aliz ation,
demogr aphic s
and en vir onmen t .
•
T he s e
f or c e s
ar en ’t
ne w .
B ut
the y
e v olv e
in
w a v e s; e ach
ne w w a v e
is
disruptiv e
in
dif f er en t
w a y s .
F or instanc e ,
w e
ha v e
s een
s e v eral
w a v e s
o f
technology in
r ec en t
y e ar s ,
including
per s onal
c omput er s , mobile ,
s ocial
and
In ternet
o f
T hings .
•
In
this
r epor t ,
w e
highlight
f our
e x ample s
o f
the
lat e s t
w a v e s
oc c urring
in
the
primary
f or c e s:
•
P o w ering
human
augmen t ation
( technology )
•
B e y ond
glob aliz ation
( glob aliz ation )
•
Gen
Z
rising
( demogr aphic s )
•
Exponen tial
climat e
imp act s
( en vir onmen t )
Megatr ends
•
T he
in teraction
be t w een
the
w a v e s
o f
primary
f or c e s
cr e at e s
ne w megatrends .
•
Our
lis t
o f
megatrends...
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