美元：长期熊市开始【精选推荐】
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T able
of
Co nte nts
W h y
w e
stay
do ll ar
b e ar s
and
i mp l i c at i o n s
3
Why
we
s ta y
bea r ish
on
t he
U S
doll a r
.................................................................................... 3
T he
euro
ver s us
t he
U S
dol la r
4
When
would
poli cy m a k er s
t r y
to
s top
U S D
wea k nes s ?
8
Wha t
nor m a ll y
stops
a l ong - ter m
cur r enc y
move?
9
Wha t
a bout
y en
a nd
ster li ng ?
9
Im pact
of
dol la r
wea k nes s
.................................................................................................... 11
Pos it ive
f or
g r ow th
11
Pos it ive
f or
i n f la ti on
ex pec ta ti ons
12
C omm odit y
pr ic es
13
Gold
15
R eg ions
................................................................................................................................. 16
Emer g ing
ma r k ets
16
Eur ope
19
J a pa n
21
UK
22
Hedg ed
ver s us
unhedg ed
r etur n s
23
S ect or s
.................................................................................................................................. 24
S ect or s
with
domes ti c
Eu r ope
ex pos ur e
24
Wha t
a bout
s peci f ic
stock s ?
25
S m a ll
c a ps
............................................................................................................................ 28
Ap p e n d i x
30
A ppendix
1 :
B r e x it
30
A ppendix
2 :
EM
c u rr enci es
vs f u nda menta ls
31
A ppendix
3 :
S ect o r - a djusted
P/E
– Eur ope
vs U S
32
A ppendix
4 :
Hedg ed
ver s us
unh edg ed
r etu r ns
– J a pa n
a nd
t he
U K
32
Why
we
sta y
d o llar
bears
a nd
i mplic at io ns
Why
w e
stay
bear ish
on
the
U S
dolla r
In
J uly ,
the
doll a r
s a w
i ts
big g es t
m onthl y
depr eci a ti on
s inc e S eptember
2010
a nd
we
ex pect the
U S D
to
w ea k en
f ur ther
to
E U R U S D
1.25
by
t he
end
o f
t he
y ea r
( in
li ne
with
the
C S
hous e v iew
of
f a ir
value
o f
EUR U S D
1 . 26
– s ee Equil ib r iu m
ex cha ng e r a tes :
C S
f a i r
va lu e upda t e f o r Q 2
2020 ) .
In
2010 ,
the
U S D
als o
c onti nued
t o
wea k en
by
7 %
over
t he
s ubs equent
s even m onths .
Figu r e
1 :
M o n th l y
c h a n g e s
i n
D X Y
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
DXY
monthly
%
change
April
2011
-3.86%
Sep
2010
-5.38%
Apr
2015
-4.15%
-3.82%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
His tor ic a ll y
t he
dol la r
ha s
t ended
to
ha ve
bull
ma r k ets
la s ti ng
no
long er
t ha n
s even
y ea r s
( if
t he doll a r
ha d
r a ll ied
thi s
y ea r ,
it
w oul d
ha ve
been
t he
ni nth
y ea r
o f
a bull
ma r k et) ,
f oll ow ed
by
ver y long - ter m
bea r
ma r k ets. W e c a n
s ee t he
ma g nit ude
of
such
move s
– s o
f a r
the
doll a r
is down 9 %
f r om
i ts
pea k
in
Ma r ch comp a r e d
w it h
a t y pic a l
bea r
ma r k et
decl ine
of
40 - 50%
a nd
s ix y ea r s .
How ever ,
w e would
ex pec t
the
bea r
ma r k et
in
the
doll a r
t o
be
of
a sma ll er
ma g nit ude
thi s ti m e a r ound
( not
lea s t
beca us e i t
never
beca m e a s
over valued) .
Figu r e
2 :
D o ll a r
b u ll
m arket s
h av e
te n d e d
t o l as t
n o l o n g e r
th a n
se v e n
ye ar s
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Trade
weighted
US
dollar
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
6.5
y
rs
+67%
10
y
rs
-47%
6.5
y
rs
+42%
9.5
y
rs
-39%
5.5
y
rs
+43%
The
euro
ver sus
t he
US
doll ar
We
s ee t he
f oll ow ing
a r g um ents
f or
a wea k er
U S
dol la r :
1.
Th e
Fed
w i ll
h ave
to
p r i n t
mu c h
mo r e
th an
th e
E CB
T he
F ed
is li k ely
t o
pr int
sig ni f ic a ntl y
mor e money
than
t he
EC B .
T his
is pa r tl y
beca us e the deter ior a ti on
i n
the
U S
f isca l
pos it ion
is m uch
g r ea te r
t ha n
t ha t
of
Eur ope
a nd
pa r tl y
beca us e of the
F ed’s
open - ended
comm it ment
to
Q E.
T he
U S
budg et
def i ci t
a nd
debt
t o
GD P
ha ve
deter ior a ted
ver y
sh a r ply
r ela ti ve
to
tha t
of
EU.
A t the
end
of
2019 ,
the
U S
g ove r nment ’s
debt
to
GDP
wa s
24.6 pp
hig her
than
t ha t
o f
euro
a r ea . I t
is ex pected
t o
be
43p .p.
hi g her
in
2021 ,
w it h
t he
budg e t
def i ci t
a s
a per cent a g e of
GD P pr ojec ted
to
be
23.8 %
a s
of
the
end
of
t his
y ea r ,
double
tha t
of
e ur o
a r ea .
Figu r e
3 :
Th e
U S
i s
e me r g i n g
fr om th e
c r i si s
w i th
a muc h h i g he r
l e v e l
o f
d e b t
Government
debt
to
GDP,
%
Figu r e
4 :
Th e
U S
i s
e x p e c ted
to
ru n
a muc h
b i gg e r
d e fi c i t
t han E u r o p e
Overall Fiscal Balance (IMF Fiscal Monitor) 145 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 45
US Euro area
2020e, IMF
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Eurozone US
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
I M F ,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
C r edit
S uiss e ec onom ists believe
t ha t
the
F ed
will
not
a ll ow
bond
y iel d s
to
r ise a nd
i f
nec es s a r y w ill
comm it
t o
so m e f or m
o f
y iel d
c ur ve
c ont r ol
w it h
a t a r g et
on
3 -
to
5 - y ea r
y iel ds
( s ee U S E conom y
N otes : Ho w
t o
pa y
f o r
i t wit hou t inf la ti on ,
13
J ul) .
T his
m ea ns
t he
F ed
w ill
m os t
li k ely ha ve
to
buy
m uch
m or e than
the
EC B .
I f
the
F ed
e x pa nd s
it s
ba lan ce
s heet
m or e than
the
EC B , the
doll a r
t ends t o
wea k en
( s o
f a r
t his
y ea r ,
the
F ed
ha s
ex pa nded
i ts
ba la nce s heet
by
13 %
of GDP
compa r ed
to
14 %
by
t he
EC B ) .
We
thi nk tha t
g oing
f or w a r d, the
F ed
will
ha ve
to
pr int
mo r e t ha n
t he
EC B .
S inc e M a y
it
ha s funded
only
20 %
of
net
i ss ua nce a nd
we
s us pect
t his
w ill
r ise.
EURUSD,
6M%
Difference
in
6m
balance
sheet
growth,
Fed
vs
ECB,
rhs
Figu r e
5 :
W he n
th e
Fed
i n c r e ase s
i ts
b alan c e
sh ee t
b y
mo r e th a n
th e
E CB ,
th e
E u r o e n d s
t o stren g th e n
Fi g u r e
6 :
Fed
b u yi n g
o f
tr e asu r i e s
h as
l ag g e d
n e t
su pp l y
v e r y si g n i fi ca n tl y
r e c e n tl y ,
w h i c h
w i ll
fo r c e
th e
Fe d
t o b u y
mo r e
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan
20
Feb
20
Mar
20
Apr
20
Apr
20
May
20
Jun
20
Jul
20
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
B loom berg
F ina n c e L .
P . ,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
2.
Th e
eu r o co u l d
b e co me
mo r e
o f
a r e se r v e
c u rr e n c y
We
thi nk t he
hug e c ha ng es
i n
Eu r opea n
pol ic y
( i. e.
EC B
buy in g ,
E U
R ecover y
F und
a nd Ger m a n
f isca l
ea s ing )
sug g es t
th a t
the
euro
c ould
become
mor e o f
a r es erve
c u rr enc y . C ur r entl y
j us t
20 %
of
FX
r es erve s
a r e i n
t he
euro
c om pa r ed
w it h
i ts
GDP
weig ht
of
15 %
( w hil e 62 %
of
FX
r es er ves a r e i n
t he
d oll a r ) .
T he
euro
m a de
up
29 %
of
g loba l
FX
r es e r ves i n
2009 .
Figu r e
7 :
E u r o as
%
of
al l oc at e d
FX r e se r v e s
i s
m u c h
l o w e r
Figu r e
8 :
E u r o as
%
of
al l oc at e d
rese r v e s
v s
G D P
sh ar e
th a n
U S D
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
Euro
area
29%
27%
25%
23%
21%
19%
17%
15%
Euro
share
of
World
GDP,
rhs
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2011
2013
2015
2017
2020
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Fed
buying
of
treasuries,
cumulative
YTD,
bn
Treasuries
net
supply,
cumulative
YTD,bn
25%
Euro
%
of
Global
Allocated
FX
Reserves
3.
E u r o p e’s
l ar g e r
c u rr e n t
acco u n t
su r p l u s
i s
p osi ti v e
fo r
th e
eu r o T he
e ur o
a r ea i s
r unning
a sig n if i ca ntl y
l a r g e r
c ur r ent
a cc ount
s u r plus
r ela ti ve
to
the
U S
( 5 p.p. hig her
on
IM F
estima tes
f or
2020 ) .
T he
l a s t
ti m e t he
e ur o
c ur r ent
a cc ount
s ur plus
w a s
5 % a bove
tha t
of
t he
U S ,
the
euro
wa s
nea r ly
20 %
mor e ex pens ive.
4.
S i mp l e
v a l u at i o n
T he
dol la r
i s
14 %
a bove
PPP
a nd
a s
show n
in
the
cha r ts
below ,
it
t y pic a ll y
tr oug hs
when
it
i s cheap.
Figu r e
9 :
Th e
Eu r o z o n e
c u rr e n t
acco u n t
su r p l u s
i s
fo r e c ast
to
Figu r e
10 :
Th e
d o ll ar
rem ain s
e x p e n si v e
i n
ag g r e g at e
sta y
5 %
ab o v e
th a t
o f
th e
U S
40%
EUR USD deviation from PPP 8% Eur-US current acc balance % of GDP, rhs
2.5
Standardised
scores
DXY,
deviation
from
PPP IMF
CPI
REER
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% 7% 2.0
1.5
6% 1.0
5% 0.5
0.0
4% -0.5
-1.0
3% -1.5
2% -2.0
IMF
ULC
REER
2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1995
2001
2007
2013
2020
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
I M F ,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
5.
Real
r at e
d i fferen ti als ar e
n o l o n g e r
d o ll ar - su pp o r ti v e
T he
g a p
bet w een
r ea l
r a tes
in
th e U S
a nd
the
e u r o
a r ea ha s
completely
c losed
f or
the
f i r s t
ti m e s inc e 20...
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