美股-美国银行业：阴暗天空可能给放贷者带来尾部风险【完整版】
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G l o b al R e sear c h
22
May
2020
US
Ba n ks
NY
O ff ic e
O ut l oo k
CC
H i g hl ig h t s
&
T r ans cr i pt: D a r ke r
S kie s
Ma y
P r e se nt
Ta il
Risk
F o r
Le nd e r s
A
S l o w
Mo v i n g
B u t
P o w e r fu l
W av e
A pp r o a che s
N e w
Yo r k O n
M ay
19 th
w e
ho s ted
a
c on feren ce
c al l
w i th
R i c h ard
B ern s tei n,
Ex ec u ti ve
V i ce Ch ai rman
at
Cu s h ma n & W ak efi el d, an d R i c h ard
Pers i c hetti, S en i or Direc to r & Head
o f Tri - State
R es earc h
&
M arketi ng
at
Cu s h ma n
&
W akefi el d.
They
pro v i d ed
bo th
a res earc h
p ers p ec ti ve
an d
on e
as
a
s en i or
c o mmerc i al
o ffi ce
l eas i ng
p rac titi on er. Takeaw ay s
i n c l ud e:
1 )
The
i n crease
i n t h e
o ff i ce
vac an cy
rat e
i s
ex p ec te d t o be
i n- li ne w i th
w h at
w as
s een
i n
th e
G F C
an d
p eak
a t
o v er
18 %.
At
11 %
vac an cy
en teri ng 2020, i n creas es
s tart o ff
a
h i gh er
b as e
rate
no w
th an
i n 2008.
2 )
As ki ng l eas e
rates
ar e ex p ec ted
to
tro ugh mo re
th an
20 %
b el o w
Q 1 l ev el s
b y
mi d-2021 m ov i ng
f rom
ov e r $73
PSF
to
~$60 PSF
o v er
n ea rl y
2
years .
R ec o v ery
to
Q 1 ’ 20
l eas e
rates
w ill
no t
b e qu i c k
an d
i s
ex p ec ted
to
req u i re
3.5
years .
Al th ough
l ea s i ng
v o l u me
w a s
at
rec ord l ev el s
i n
2019,
th e
market
w as
al read y
s ho w i ng
s i gn s
o f
w eakn es s
w i t h
el ev ated c onc e ss i o ns .
3)
T he
c ons t r uc t i on
pi pe li ne
f or
2020-2024
h as
al read y
s hrunk
fro m 24.5mm
s q.
ft .
e nt e r i ng
2020
t o
19mn
s q.
ft .
now
pr oj ec t e d.
4)
O f
f ur t he r
c onc e rn, un li ke
th e
G F C,
w h ere
th e
te c h s ec to r to ok up mu c h o f
th e
av ai l ab l e
s p ace
vac ated
b y fi n an c i al
s erv i ce s
c om pa ni e s ,
t he r e
i s
no
ob v i ous
go- to
s ec to r
i n
th ei r
v iew
th at
i s po s i ti on ed
to
eas il y
ab s orb
th e
v o l u me.
5 )
COV I D
i mp li c ati on s
are
no t
fu ll y d imen s i on ed
bu t
i n c l ud e
rev ers al
i n
a
l ong
term
tren d
to w ard
o ffi ce
d e n s i fi c ati on ( w h ic h
ju st if ie d
h ig h e r
le as e
r ates ) .
Efforts
to
make
w ork- fro m-ho me
a
p ermanen t op ti on fo r man y
w o rkers
ma y
rep res en t
a
n ew
s ec u l ar
th reat
to
o ffi ce
l eas e
rates
an d bu il d i ng
v al u es
th at
ex ten d s
th e
do w n tu rn
es p ec i al l y
i n
d en s e
metro
areas
li ke M an h atta n.
B r o ck
V and er vl i et
A na l ys t br ock .va nde r vl i e t @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2382
Sau l
Mar t i n ez
A na l ys t s a ul.m a r t i ne z@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2491
V il as
Abr aham
A na l ys t vi l a s .a br a ha m @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3241
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p repared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANALYS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
25 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Banks
Am er i cas
Equit ies
D e ns i fi c a ti o n
N ow
Runs i n
Re v erse
Peak
o ffi ce
empl o y men t
w as
F eb ru ary
2020, s urp as s i ng th e
p rev i ou s
p eak
i n 2001 b y 170k
e m pl oy ee s ,
ye t
oc c upy i ng
15mn-17mn
l e ss
s q.
f o ot a g e
t ha n
t he y
di d
i n
2001. Th i s
i s
th e
d en s i fi c ati on tren d.
Th i s
tren d i n p arti c u l ar
s eems
read y
to
b e
s to od on i ts he a d i n t h i s
n e w
en v i ron men t
w h ere
s h ared
o ffi ce
s p ace
b ei ng c as t
as i d e.
I mmedi ate reac ti on
b y
l a nd l ord s
i s
limi t ed .
L an d l ord s
are
w el l
aw are
o f
th e
c o s t
to
retro fi t prop erti e s
th at
ran g e
fro m
mil d,
few er
d es ks
an d
on e - w ay
h al l w ay s ,
fo r
ex ampl e
to m uc h mor e
ex p en s i ve
i ss u e s , li ke
i n creas ed
e l ev ato r c ap ac ity .
I n ad d i ti on, i t
i s
un c l ear w ho fi ts
th e
b ill
fo r th e
c h an g es
an d t h es e
n eg o ti ati on s
are
on l y
b e g i nn i ng.
Un li ke
i n th e
eq u ity
market,
th e
c o mmerc i al
o ffi ce
m arket,
d efi n e d
b y
ten
y ear
l ea s es
mo ve s slo w l y
w i t h of t e n s i x
month s
of
ne got i a t i on a mong va r i o us
pa r t i e s . D on’t
L o ok
F or Cl e a r
T re nds
F or a
Whi l e
Parti c i p an ts
i nd i c ated
i t
may
b e
w el l
i n to
th e
s u mmer
b efo r e
rel ev an t
l eas e
s i gn i ng s emerg e
th ere
h as
b een
v ery
li t tl e
mo v emen t
s i n ce
M arc h.
Ano th er
n ew
fac to r i s
t h e ten or o f
l an d l ord/ ten a n t
d i s c u ss i on s .
Ex i s ti ng l an d l ord s
are
mu c h mo re
w illi ng to
make d eep
c on c es s i on s
fo r
ex i s ti ng
ten an ts
an d
b a ttl e
to
keep
th em.
Th i s
h as
d amp en e d de m a nd f or ne w
s pa ce
a nd l ea s i ng ac t i v i t y
i s
down s ha r pl y
s t a r t i ng i n M arc h. NY C:
M ore
D i v ers i ty i n
Offi c e
M a rke t
but No
Cl e a r l y
Grow i ng
S e c tor
I n
1990,
t he
f i nanc i a l
s e r v i c e s
s e c t or
c ompr i s e d
47 %
o f
t he
of f i c e
m a rk e t
i n M a nha tt a n
v e r s us
t oda y
a t
j u s t
28% .
M ea nw hi l e
i n
t he
s a m e
pe r i od,
t e c hnol ogy - ba s e d
c om pa n i e s
s ur ge d
f rom
16%
t o
26 %
t oda y ,
e ss e nt i a ll y
t a k i ng
up
t he
s l a c k l e ft
by
f i nanc i a l
s e r v i c e s .
A l t hough
mor e
di v e r s e
now
bot h
pa r t i c i pa nt s
not e d t he r e
w a s
a s
y e t
no
obvi ous
i ndus t r y
s e c t or
t ha t
w a s
li k e l y
t o
abs orb
e xc e ss
s p a c e a s
t e c h
d i d
p os t - G F C .
T hi s
c ould
e x t e nd
t h e
m ar ket
d i s l o c ation.
C o- w ork i ng s pa c e
a ppe a r s
s m a ll
a t
j u s t
16.5mn
or
4%
of
t ot a l
of f i c e
s pa c e
but
t hi s
pe r c e nt a ge i s
t he
l a r ge s t
c onc e nt r a t i on
i n
t he
U . S .
a nd
t he
l a r ge s t
c o- w ork i ng
c om pa ni e s
ha v e abs or be d
l a rg e
por t i ons
of
i nc r e m e nt a l
C l a ss
A
s pa c e
i n
t h e
l as t
t wo
y ear s . C u s hm an
&
W akef iel d
f or eca s t s
25 %
o f
t h e
t o t al
c o- w ork i ng
s p a c e
w ill
be
v a c a nt i n
t he
ne x t
20
m ont hs .
Cons tructi on
on
Hold
Parti c i p an ts
no t ed
no
n ew
pro j ec ts
bro ke
ground
s i n ce
M arc h
an d
th e
kno w n
o ffi ce de ve l opm e nt
pi pe li ne
ha s
s hrunk fro m 24mn s q. ft.
to
19mn s q. ft.
o v er
th e
p as t
tw o mon th s .
Th i s
i s
d i ffi c u l t
to
d i s c ern
w h eth er
th i s
w as
b as ed
on
d ec i s i on s
b y
pro j ec t pr i nc i pa l s , f i nanc i ng pa r t ne r s
or both.
F i nanc i ng pa r t ne r s
a ppe a r t o ha ve
r a i s e d pr e - l eas e
th res ho l d s
req u i red
b e f or e
ground br ea k i ng. I m pl i c a ti ons
for L e n de rs
& Othe r
P a rti c i pa nts
P ow e r f ull y
ne g a t i ve
t r e nds
but s l ow
m ov i ng.
I f
w e
li ne d up a ll
l oa n t y pe s
on a
c on ti nuum b as ed
on life
cyc l e
aro und c red i t
ev en ts , c ertai n c on s u mer
l o a n ty p es
w ou l d fall
at
on e
en d w i th
s tabili z ed
CR E
l o an s
at
th e
o th er.
Th i s
i s
a s l ow
m ov i ng s e gm e nt
a nd p ar ti c i p an ts
no ted
i t
to ok n earl y
a
y ear
after
th e G F C
b egan
fo r
th e
o ffi ce
m arket
to
c rac k.
W e
don ’ t
ex p ec t
an y th i ng res embli ng
ma teri al
c red i t
s tr es s
to
materi a li ze
b efo re
n ex t
y ear.
L o an s s ec u red
b y
l arg e
po rti on s
o f
retai l
s p ace
c ou l d
b e
a
d ifferen t
ca l c ul us
bu t o ffi ce
i s
v ery
l ong- t a ile d. W e
ne e d t o know mor e
a bout w ha t
ex pos ur e s
ba nk s
ac t ua ll y
hol d.
W hil e
w e s ho w
g en eral
c on c en tration s
o f
CR E
an d
c o mmerc i al
c on s tru c ti on
b el o w ,
th ere
i s
li ttl e
g ran u l ari ty
e s p ec i al l y
amo ng
mi d- ca p
ba nk s
a bo ut
t h e c ompon e n t
p arts .
Sp ec i fi c al l y , ho w
mu c h i s
o ffi c e,
fo r ex ampl e
an d w h ere
i s i t
l o c ated ?
W e
ex p ec t
mu c h mo re
d i s c l o s u re
o v er
th e
n ex t
yea r. Th ere
i s
a
hug e
ran g e
o f
res erv e
l ev el s
bu t
w e
ex p ec t
mat eri al
i n creas es
i n res erv es
amo ng
mo s t
b an ks
o v er
ti me.
I n
th i s
s eg men t
i n
p arti c u l ar,
b a n ks ap p ear
to
h ave
p l en ty
o f
ti me
to
do th i s
w el l
a h ead
o f
c red i t
l o ss e s .
Efforts
to bu il d
res erv es
may
b e
acc omp an i ed
b y
pro- ac ti ve
effo rts
to
modu l a te ex pos ur e s . G i ve n t he
ca pi t a l
on t he
s i de li ne s
a nd s l ow
m ov i ng na t ur e
o f
th e c h al l en g e
h ere,
w e
b el i eve
th i s
c an
b e
don e
w i th
s o me
s u cc es s .
Di s c l o s u re
i s
no t
i n v es to r s ’
fri en d
an d
w e
do
no t
y et
kno w
w h ere
th e
h i gh e s t
o ffi ce c on c en tration s
are
w i th i n th e
s ec to r, al th ough c l earl y
b an ks
i n c l ud i ng S B NY , NY CB
an d...