当前位置: 简表范文网 > 专题范文 > 公文范文 >

2020年全球利率展望:金边债券表现不佳

| 来源:网友投稿

下面是小编为大家整理的2020年全球利率展望:金边债券表现不佳,供大家参考。

2020年全球利率展望:金边债券表现不佳

 

 2 0 2 0

 G l ob a l

 R a t e s

 O u t l oo k

 Gilts to Underperform N e u t r a l

 o n

 U S

 T r e as u r i e s

 a n d

 J G B s ,

 un d e r w e i g h t

 G e r m a n B un d s

 a n d

 U K

 g i l t s .

 G i l t s

 s h o u l d

 un d e r p e r f o r m

 o n

 a

 c r o ss- m a r k e t

 b as i s ,

 g i v e n

 a

 un iq u e

 mo n e t a r y

 po l i c y

 p a t h

 a mo n g ce n t r a l

 b a n k s .

 B uy

 U S T

 2 y

 v s .

 U K T

 2 y ,

 e n t e r

 D B R

 5 s 3 0 s s t ee p e n e r s ,

 b uy

 I r e l a n d

 1 0 y

 v s .

 Be l g i u m ,

 s e ll

 2 0 y

 J G B s

 o n 1 0 s 2 0 s 4 0 s

 5 0 : 5 0

 f l y .

 Interest Rate Strategy

 A c r o ss

 t h e

 U S ,

 t h e

 U K ,

 e u r o

 a r e a

 a n d

 J a p a n

 bo n d

 m a r k e t s ,

 2 0 2 0

 s h o u l d

 s ee a

 m a t e r i a l

 d ec l i n e

 i n

 s u pp l y

 –

 n e t o f

 r e d e mp t io n s

 a n d

 ce n t r a l

 b a n k p u r c h as e s

 –

 o f

 $ 33 0 b n

 ( i n

 U S

 do ll a r

 e q u i v a l e n t t e r m s ) .

 I n

 t h e

 U S ,

 w e

 discuss the Fed"s asymmetric reaction function that should keep rate cuts in

 MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Tony Small

 STRATEGIST the price. We discuss how the US presidential election could impact the Treasury market, in particular how expectations for policy and the effect it has on sentiment will matter. Finally, we discuss why term premiums embedded into the 10y yield will remain negative, to account for the downside risks and a still-elevated set of rate expectations. In the UK , we focus on the outlook for supply, given our economists" expectations for a significant rise in fiscal stimulus. In the euro area , we note the strong

 Tony.Small@morganstanley.com Robert J Brown

 STRATEGIST Robert.J.Brown@morganstanley.com Alina Zaytseva

 STRATEGIST Alina.Zaytseva@morganstanley.com Lorenzo Testa

 STRATEGIST Lorenzo.Testa@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2571

  +44 20 7425-4638

  +44 20 7677-1120

  +44 20 7677-0337 tendency for 30y yields to rise in the years after a strong total return year for euro area treasury benchmarks. We ask whether Japanese investors will

 MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+ Koichi Sugisaki

 STRATEGIST c o n t i nu e

 t o

 p u r c h as e

 s i g n i f i c a n t a mo un t s

 o f

 OA T s

 i n

 2 0 2 0 ,

 g i v e n

 t h a t domestic investors are now better off owning JGBs. We discuss how a

  Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com

 Shoki Omori

 +81 3 6836-8428 negative-yielding euro aggregate treasury benchmark could lead to investor

  STRATEGIST Shoki.Omori@morganstanleymufg.com

 +81 3 6836-5466 outflows, while highlighting the significant amount of debt maturing in the

  next two years with a coupon above 3%, by country. We note why increased

 r e i nv e s t m e n t r i s k

 a n d

 t h e

 c o n t i nu e d

 d e t e r io r a t io n

 i n

 c o u po n

 i n c om e

 m a y c o n t i nu e

 t o

 p u s h

 i nv e s t o r s

 t o w a r d s

 BT Ps .

 W e

 u pd a t e

 o u r

 f o r ec as t s

 f o r 2 0 2 0

 E G B

 s u pp l y .

 I n

 J a p a n ,

 w e

 h a v e

 r e v i e w e d

 o u r

 e s t im a t e s

 f o r

 F Y 2 0 2 0 J G B

 i ss u a n ce

 p l a n s

 a n d

 s u pp l y / d e m a n d

 f o r

 e a c h

 m a t u r i t y

 b u c k e t .

 W e

 a l s o l ook

 i n t o

 w h a t J a p a n e s e

 i nv e s t o r s

 h a v e

 b ee n

 doi n g

 d u r i n g

 1 H

 F Y 2 0 1 9

 a n d di s c u ss

 o u r

 v i e w

 o n

 t h e i r

 f u t u r e

 a c t i v i t i e s .

 Inflation-Linked Bonds

 I n

 t h e

 U S ,

 a

 c ombi n a t io n

 o f

 t h e

 U S

 e l ec t io n

 d yn a mi c s ,

 a

 F e d

 o n

 p a u s e

 ( un t i l f u r t h e r

 n o t i ce ) ,

 a n d

 t h e

 s t a bi l i t y

 o f

 r e a l i ze d

 i n f l a t io n

 l e a d s

 u s

 t o

 f o r ec as t r e l a t i v e l y

 un c h a n g e d

 1 0 - y e a r

 b r e a k e v e n s ,

 e n di n g

 2 0 2 0

 a t 1 . 6 0 % ,

 a n d

 r e a l y i e l d s

 s t a y i n g

 i n

 po s i t i v e

 t e rr i t o r y ,

 e n di n g

 2 0 2 0

 a t 1 5 bp .

 W e

 di s c u ss

 t h e s t i c ki n e ss

 o f

 r e a l i ze d

 i n f l a t io n

 a n d

 t h e

 do w n w a r d

 r i s k s

 ass o c i a t e d

 w i t h s h e l t e r

 C P I .

 W e

 s ee

 s t a b l e

 a n d

 p r e di c t a b l e

 i ss u a n ce

 o f

 T I P S

 i n

 2 0 2 0 ,

 w i t h

 a p u ll - b a c k

 i n

 f o r e i g n

 d e m a n d

 f o r

 T I P S

 i n

 2 0 1 9

 as

 a

 k e y

 r i s k

 t o

 T I P S

 d e m a n d i n

 2 0 2 0 .

 I n

 t h e

 e u r o

 a r e a ,

 w e

 s ee

 1 0 y

 H I C P

 s w a p s

 as

 a

 h i g h e r

 b e t a

 p l a y

 f o r

 Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or discussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

 += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

 December 1, 2019 05:00 AM GMT MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC

 Matthew Hornbach

 STRATEGIST Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com

 +1 212 761-1837 Guneet Dhingra, CFA STRATEGIST Guneet.Dhingra@morganstanley.com

  +1 212 761-1445 Edward von der Schmidt, CFA

 STRATEGIST Edward.Von.Der.Schmidt@morganstanley.com

  +1-212-761-7085 Ailing Deng

 STRATEGIST Ailing.Deng@morganstanley.com

  +1 212 761-0481 Kelcie Gerson

 STRATEGIST Kelcie.Gerson@morganstanley.com

  +1 212 761-3983 James Cho

 STRATEGIST James.Cho@morganstanley.com

  +1 212 761-1288 David Harris

 QUANTITATIVE ANALYST David.G.Harris@morganstanley.com

  +1 212 761-0087

 t h e

 f i r s t h a l f

 r ec o v e r y

 i n

 g r o w t h .

 W e

 e x p ec t 1 0 y

 H I C P

 s w a p s

 t o

 r e a c h

 1 3 5 bp b y

 J un e

 2 0 2 0 ,

 w id e n i n g

 b y

 n e a r l y

 2 5 bp

 f r om

 c u rr e n t s po t l e v e l s .

 W e s u gg e s t b e i n g

 s h o r t U S

 C P I

 v s .

 1 0 y

 H I C P

 s w a p s .

 I n

 t h e

 U K ,

 w i t h

 e x p ec t a t io n s f o r

 a n

 o r d e r l y

 B r e x i t ,

 a n d

 t h e

 B o E

 s i g n a l i n g

 r a t e

 h ik e s

 i n

 2 0 2 0 ,

 w e

 s ee

 r e a l y i e l d s

 i n

 t h e

 U K

 e n di n g

 2 0 2 0

 n e a r

 - 1 . 5 % .

 W e

 s ee

 t w o - w a y

 r i s k s

 f o r b r e a k e v e n s ,

 w i t h

 1 0 - y e a r

 U K

 b r e a k e v e n s

 e n di n g

 2 0 2 0

 a t 2 9 0 bp .

 W e

 a l s o t a k e

 a

 c l o s e r

 l ook

 a t F X

 p ass- t h r o u g h

 i n t o

 R P I

 i n f l a t io n .

 I n

 J a p a n ,

 w e c o n t i nu e

 t o

 a d v o c a t e

 c a u t io n

 v i s-à- v i s

 J G B i

 p r i ce s

 a n d

 b r e a k e v e n s .

 W e

 a l s o s ee

 l i tt l e

 p r o s p ec t o f

 s i g n i f i c a n t s u ppo r t f r om

 d e m a n d / s u pp l y ,

 g i v e n

 t h a t m a r k e t s e n t im e n t r e m a i n s

 b e a r i s h .

 W e

 c o n t i nu e

 t o

 r ec omm e n d

 b e i n g

 l o n g J G B i

 # 2 4

 o n

 a

 r e a l

 y i e l d

 b as i s ,

 g i v e n

 c h e a p

 v a l u a t io n s .

 Short-Duration Strategy

 I n

 t h e

 U S ,

 w e

 di s c u ss

 o u r

 o u t l ook

 f o r

 t h e

 y e a r - e n d

 t u r n .

 W e

 b e l i e v e

 t h a t

 t h e

 m a r k e t i s

 f a i r l y

 p r i c i n g

 i n

 a

 y e a r - e n d

 t u r n

 o f

 3 . 5 % ,

 w i t h

 t h e

 g r e a t e r

 r i s k t h a t r e po

 t r a d e s

 c h e a p e r

 as

 oppo s e d

 t o

 r i c h e r .

 W e

 t h e n

 di s c u ss

 o u r

 o u t l ook f o r

 C P

 a n d

 T - bi ll

 i ss u a n ce

 i n

 2 0 2 0 .

 W e

 s u gg e s t b uy i n g

 1 2 m

 a n d

 3 m

 T - bi ll s

 v s .

 O I S ,

 as

 w e ll

 as

 m a i n t a i n i n g

 l o n g

 U S T

 2 y

 v s .

 O I S .

 W i t h

 e x p ec t a t io n s

 o f i n c r e as e d

 C P

 i ss u a n ce

 a n d

 s h o r t e r

 p r im e

 MM F

 W A M s

 i n t o

 y e a r - e n d ,

 w e s u gg e s t m a i n t a i n i n g

 D ec

 F R A / O I S

 w id e n e r s .

 L as t l y ,

 w e

 e x p ec t t h e

 F e d

 t o

 e n d T - bi ll

 p u r c h as e s

 i n

 A p r i l

 a n d

 e x p ec t n e t po s i t i v e

 bi ll

 i ss u a n ce

 i n

 2H2 0 ,

 d r i v i n g

 f un di n g

 r a t e s

 h i g h e r .

 A s

 s u c h ,

 w e

 s u gg e s t J un e - S e p

 F R A / O I S s t ee p e n e r s .

 I n

 J a p a n ,

 w e

 di s c u ss

 o u r

 2 0 2 0

 o u t l ook

 f o r

 t h e

 U S D J P Y

 b as i s .

 W e

 e x p ec t t h e

 U S D J P Y

 b as i s

 t o

 r e m a i n

 a t t i g h t l e v e l s

 a c r o ss

 t h e

 c u r v e .

 W e s u gg e s t p a y i n g

 U S D J P Y

 b as i s

 2 y 1 y

 a n d

 5 y 5 y

 o n

 dip s ,

 a n d

 1 s 1 0 s

 E U R J P Y

 b as i s s t ee p e n e r .

 Interest Rate Derivatives

 I n

 t h e

 U S ,

 w e

 p r o v id e

 a

 r a t e

 a n d

 v o l

 b u ll / b as e / b e a r

 s ce n a r io

 m a t r i x

 a n d

 a q u a n t i t a t i v e

 f r a m e w o r k

 t o

 id e n t i f y

 t h e

 m a c r o

 a n d

 m a r k e t o u t c om e s

 a n d

 t h e c o rr e s po n di n g

 v o l

 r e a c t io n s

 h e a di n g

 i n t o

 2 0 2 0 .

 B o t h

 t h e

 s ce n a r io s

 a n d

 t h e imp l i e d

 r a t e

 v o l

 f a i r

 v a l u e

 mod e l

 poi n t t o

 a

 n e g a t i v e

 r a t e

 a n d

 v o l

 c o rr e l a t io n

 w i t h

 nu a n ce s

 t o

 e a c h

 p a r t o f

 t h e

 s u r f a ce .

 On

 s t r u c t u r a l

 f l o w s , w e

 r e v i s i t t h e

 d yn a mi c s

 o f

 2 0 1 9

 a n d

 di s c u ss

 t h e

 o u t l ook

 f o r

 2 0 2 0 .

 W e a n a l y ze

 h o w

 t h e

 s y s t e m a t i c

 s e ll i n g

 s t r a t e g y

 i n

 t h e

 g a mm a

 s ec t o r

 a n d

 t h e c a ll a b l e

 bo n d

 i ss u a n ce

 i n

 t h e

 v e g a

 s ec t o r

 c o u l d

 un f o l d

 un d e r

 v a r io u s m a r k e t s ce n a r io s .

 L as t l y ,

 w e

 p r o v id e

 o u r

 m a i n

 t r a d e

 t h ...

推荐访问:2020年全球利率展望:金边债券表现不佳 金边 不佳 债券

热门文章

追梦筑梦圆梦演讲稿

最近发表了一篇名为《追梦筑梦圆梦演讲稿》的范文,感觉很有用处,这里给大家转摘到。演讲稿特别注重结构清楚,层次简明。在日新月异的现代社会中,在很多情况下需要用到演讲稿,如何写一份恰当的演讲稿呢?下面是小编为大家整理的追梦筑梦圆梦演讲稿,希望能够帮助到大家!追梦筑梦圆梦演讲稿1尊敬的

2022年度中考优秀作文素材别样美三篇

最近发表了一篇名为《中考优秀作文素材别样的美精选三篇》的范文,好的范文应该跟大家分享,看完如果觉得有帮助请记得(CTRL+D)收藏本页。雨过天晴,花坛边上,几只蜗牛缓缓的爬行着,留下一道彩虹般的痕迹,那柔软的外面,是坚硬的外壳,那也是一道的美丽。下面是小编为大家收集整理的关于素材别样的美精

《********大宣讲特别节目》直播观后感

最近发表了一篇名为《2022《********大宣讲特别节目》直播观后感【精选】》的范文,感觉写的不错,希望对您有帮助,希望对网友有用。,安全,在学校里,在校外,安全这个词恐怕是再熟悉不过了吧,让将安全铭记心中,时进刻刻都做到安全,让父母不再操心,让长辈不再担心,让安全从我做起,从身边

建团百周年活动策划

《2022建团百周年活动策划【精选】》是一篇好的范文,感觉很有用处,希望大家能有所收获。党的领导是共青团顺利发展的关键所在,无论是中国早期青年团的建立,还是中国共青团的正式成立,都离不开党的领导。下面小编为大家整理了2022建团百周年策划【精选】的相关内容,以供参考,希望给大家带来帮助!20

大一暑假社会实践报告(精选文档)

本页是最新发布的《2022大一暑假社会实践报告》的详细范文参考文章,感觉写的不错,希望对您有帮助,希望大家能有所收获。这个暑假过得是否充实呢,有些小伙伴在假期中参加了实践,那么如何做一份报告呢?下面是小编整理的2022大一暑假社会实践报告,仅供参考,希望能够帮助到大家。2022大一暑假社会

2022员工培训学习心得体会范本合集(范文推荐)

最近发表了一篇名为《员工培训学习心得体会范文》的范文,感觉写的不错,希望对您有帮助,为了方便大家的阅读。培训能让员工不断的提高,并清楚的意识到自己的缺点。经过员工培训,你一定有许多的收获,不妨来写一篇员工培训心得。你是否在找正准备撰写“员工培训心得体会范文”,下面小编收集了相关的素材,

2022不期而遇作文600字初中记叙文

《不期而遇作文600字初中记叙文》是一篇好的范文,感觉很有用处,希望对网友有用。,美词,像是袭袭的寒风慢慢轻掠大地,刺刺的,一缕****的阳光下有一小缕的橘红色静静的生长。下面是小编为大家收集整理的关于不期而遇600字初中记叙文,一起来看看吧!不期而遇作文600字篇一苏轼有语人间有味是清欢,或许正是

2022年度幼儿园清明节主题活动总结范本

《2022幼儿园清明节主题活动总结范文【精选】》是一篇好的范文,感觉很有用处,为了方便大家的阅读。,又称踏青节、行清节、三月节、祭祖节等,节期在仲春与暮春之交。清明节源自上古时代的祖先信仰与春祭礼俗,以下是小编整理的2022园清明节主题总结,希望可以提供给大家进行参考和借鉴。2022幼儿园清明节

2022年大学生档案自我鉴定300字10篇

2022年普通大学生个人社会实践实习报告精选服务社会做好思想准备和业务准备,公司内部电脑系统都是统一英文系统,就要求自己以职场……[详细]2022年党员思想汇报例文两篇【完整版】所以在以后的学习和生活中,经历过苦难的中国,工作以及生活中,特别是通过学习党章党纪……[详细]企业员工服务意识培训心得体会

以小见大作文500字范本(范文推荐)

最近发表了一篇名为《以小见大作文500字范文【精选】》的范文,感觉写的不错,希望对您有帮助,重新编辑了一下发到。一件事情的发生,离不开时间、地点、人物、事情的起因、经过和结果这六方面,即常说的六要素,只有交待清楚这几方面,才能使读者对所叙述的事,有个清楚、全面的了解。这里小编

2022年度有关安全学习心得合集(2022年)

本页是最新发布的《有关安全学习心得》的详细范文参考文章,感觉很有用处,看完如果觉得有帮助请记得(CTRL+D)收藏本页。有了一些收获以后,可以记录在心得体会中,这么做能够提升的书面表达能力。相信许多人会觉得心得体会很难写吧,下面是小编为大家收集的有关学习心得,供大家参考借鉴,希望可以帮

小学品德教师期末工作总结范本合集

最近发表了一篇名为《小学品德教师期末工作总结范文》的范文,感觉很有用处,重新整理了一下发到这里[http: www fwwang cn]。时光飞逝,如梭之日,回顾这段时间的工作,一定有许多的艰难困苦,是时候在工作总结中好好总结过去的成绩了。下面小编在这里为大家精心整理了几篇小学教师期