蒙古蔬菜生产和价值
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T ABLES
AND
FIGURES
............................................................................................................................ v
F OREWORD
............................................................................................................................................ vii A CKNO WLEDGMENT S
........................................................................................................................ viii ABBREVIA TIONS
.................................................................................................................................... ix
EXE CUTIVE SU MMAR Y
.......................................................................................................................... x
1.
KEY
FINDINGS
...................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1
Curr ent
Situation
and
P r ospects:
Mark et
and
V alue
Chain
........................................... 1
1.2
P otential
I mpro v ement:
Models,
F easibility ,
H igh-L ev el
In v estment
As ses sment,
and
Busines s
Models
f or
V alue
Chain
Pla y ers
........................................................... 1
1.2.1
P otential
I mpro v ements
f or
the
Community
Gr o w er
Gr oups
............................... 2
1.2.2
P otential
I mpro v ements
f or
T r aders,
Aggr e gators,
and
Wholesalers
....................... 2
1.2.3
P otential
I mpro v ements
f or
P roc es sors
and
R etailers
........................................ 3
1.3
R ec ommendations
f or
Appr oach
to
P ublic–P riv ate
Sector
Engagement
........................... 3
1.3.1
Actionable
R ec ommendations
on
H o w
to
S upport
Community
Gr o w er
Gr oups
........ 3
1.3.2
I dentification
o f
T ypes
o f
V ertical
and
H oriz ontal
Coor dination
Models
.................. 4
1.3.3
Actions
to
F acilitate
I ncr eased
V alue
Chain
Coor dination
................................... 5
2.
MARKET A SSESS MENT
..................................................................................................................... 6
2.1
Sector
Ov erview
............................................................................................. 6
2.1.1
I ntroduction
......................................................................................... 6
2.1.2
H istorical
Context
.................................................................................. 6
2.1.3
P olicy
Context
....................................................................................... 7
2.2
Demand
Analy sis:
Who ,
Wher e,
P roducts,
Quantities,
Qualities,
P ric es,
T rends,
and
P r ospects
...................................................................................... 9
2.2.1
Demand
( Consumption)
.......................................................................... 9
2.2.2
R elevanc e
o f
F ood
Saf ety
As suranc e
and
Quality
S tandar ds
.............................. 17
2.3
S upply
Analy sis
............................................................................................. 20
2.3.1
Mark et
Siz e:
Wher e
I s
P r oduc e
Gr o wn,
H o w ,
and
in
What
Quantity?
................... 20
2.3.2
S upply
Analy sis:
What
V egetables
and
Wher e
F r om?
...................................... 20
2.4
D riv ers
o f
S upply
P erf ormanc e
........................................................................... 33
3.
VAL UE CHAIN
ANAL Y SIS
............................................................................................................... 34
3.1
V alue
Chain
Map:
Mark eting
Channels,
R ev enues,
Costs,
Mar gins,
and
T rends
................ 34
3.1.1
Description
o f
the
End-to-End
V alue
Chain
f or
V egetables
in
Mongolia
................ 34
3.2
Competitiv e
Mark et
Landscape:
Shar es
o f
Domestic
S uppliers,
I mports,
N atur e
o f
Competition,
and
T rends
..................................................................... 38
3.2.1
Who
Ar e
the
Major
S uppliers
o f
P romising
Cr ops?
.......................................... 38
3.2.2
Analy sis
o f
P r oduct
P ric es
in
U laanbaatar
Mark ets
......................................... 41
3.2.3
D istribution
o f
Mar gins
Acr os s
Se gments
o f
R elev ant
V alue
Chains
..................... 41
3.3
S tr engths
and
W eaknes ses
o f
V alue
Chains
in
Meeting
Mark et
N eeds
f or
V olume,
P rice,
and
Quality
........................................................................................... 50
3.3.1
D iscus sions
o f
K e y
R esults
....................................................................... 50
3.3.2
P r ocur ement
Sour ces,
P r oduc ers,
and
Sour ces
o f
R a w
Materials
......................... 52
3.3.3
E v aluation
o f
I mported
Cr ops
and
R a w
Materials,
P r ospects
o f
Competition,
and Sc ope
f or
I mport
S ubstitution
........................................................................... 52
3.3.4
Sour ces
o f
Critical
I nputs
and
T echnolo gies
.................................................. 54
3.4
R ole
o f
Smallholder
F armers
in
Meeting
V alue
Chain
N eeds
....................................... 56
4.
TE CHNICAL
ANAL Y SIS:
C ONNE CTING
S MALLHOLDER F AR MERS
T O
MARKET S
.......... 57
4.1
I ntroduction
................................................................................................. 57
4.2
Models
f or
P otential
I mpro vement
o f
Smallholder
Community
Gr o w er
Gr oups
in
P r oject
Soums
to
Meet
Mark et
N eeds
................................................................... 57
4.2.1
Base
Case
Model
.................................................................................. 58
4.2.2
Alternativ e
Cr ops
Model
......................................................................... 59
4.2.3
V alue
Chain
Models
............................................................................... 60
4.2.4
K e y
Constr aints
f or
Mark et
Entry
and
Ac ces s
to
H igh- V alue
Mark ets
................... 66
4.2.5
Actions
to
Ov er c ome
Constr aints
.............................................................. 67
4.2.6
F arm-L ev el
E c onomic
Analy sis
and
F inancial
R equir ements
.............................. 68
4.3
Analy sis
o f
Input
S upply ,
P roc es sing,
Mark eting,
and
D istribution
................................ 70
4.3.1
K e y
Constr aints,
Actions,
and
In v estments
b y
the
P ublic
and
P riv ate
Sectors
..................................................................................... 71
4.3.2
P otential
Establishment
o f
Contr act
Arr angements
to
F acilitate
Connecting
the Community
Gr o w er
Gr oups
to
Mark ets
....................................................... 71
4.3.3
K e y
Constr aints
f or
Do wnstr eam
V alue
Chain
P articipants
................................ 72
4.3.4
F easibility
o f
I mpro v ements:
T echnical,
Commer cial,
F inancial,
Social,
and
Scalability
...................................................................................... 73
5.
C ONNE CTING
S MALLHOLDER VE GET ABLE
F AR MERS
T O
MARKET S
IN
O THER
DEVEL OPING
CENTR AL
A SIAN
C OUNTRIES
........................................................ 75
5.1
K azakhstan
................................................................................................... 75
5.2
U zbekistan
................................................................................................... 76
5.3
P akistan
....................................................................................................... 76
6.
RE C O MMENDED APPR O A CH
F OR
PUBLIC SE CT OR
PR O JECT S
T O
INCREA SE
F AR MING
INC O MES
.............................................................................................. 77
6.1
Appr oach
to
P ublic
Sector
P r ojects
..................................................................... 77
6.2
Appr oach
to
P riv ate
Sector
Engagement
............................................................... 77
6.3
R ec ommendations
.......................................................................................... 77
APPENDIX
.............................................................................................................................................. 80
T ABLES
1
Appar ent
Consumption
o f
V egetables,
2012–2017
....................................................... 10
2
Estimated
V e getable
Mark et
V alue,
2012–2017
............................................................ 11
3
P r oduction,
Mark ets,
and
S tor age
o f
L ocal
F ield
and
Gr eenhouse
Cr ops
............................. 12
4
V e getable
P r oduction
Self-S ufficiency
R ate,
2012–2017
................................................. 13
5
U rban
and
R ur al
P opulation
o f
Mongolia,
2012–2017
.................................................... 14
6
U rban
and
R ur al
P er
Capita
A v er age
Annual
V e getable
Consumption,
2012–2016
................ 14
7
D iff er enc e
between
U rban
and
R ur al
P er
Capita
A v er age
Annual
V e getable
Consumption, 2012–2016
............................................................................................................ 15
8
N ation wide
Consumption
o f
P otato
and
V egetables,
2017
.............................................. 15
9
A v er age
P otential
Mark et
Siz e
o f
V egetables,
b y
V olume
............................................... 16
10
Estimation
o f
P otential
Consumption
o f
V egetables,
2018–20 20
..................................... 16
11
V aluation
o f
Mark et
Siz e
f or
P otato
and
V egetables
in
U rban
and
R ur al
Ar eas,
b y
V olume, 2018–20 20
......................
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